The US administration blamed Iran for the September 2018 rocket attacks against the US consulate building in Basra, Iraq, claiming they were carried out by Shiite militia forces. The administration announced the transfer of its diplomatic staff to the embassy in Baghdad, and senior US officials have threatened that Iran will pay a heavy price if it strikes American targets. Although the US statements relate to Iran’s overall activity in the Middle East, they seem to place special emphasis on Iraq’s potential to become more of a...
The seventh issue of Over the Net looks at trends across the Arab world. The first part focuses on the discourse, albeit limited, about the three non-Arab countries in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Turkey. A thorough examination suggests that for various reasons, and possibly contrary to common assumptions, Arab citizens regard none of the three countries as an existential threat, in comparison with domestic problems or regional issues, such as the struggle against radical Sunni Islam and political Islam. The publication then...
The renewal of US sanctions against Iran in early August represents another blow to the Iranian economy, which has weakened steadily since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. The sale of gold and precious metals to Iran has been banned, as has the acquisition of dollars by the government of Iran and Iranian companies, and there are prohibitions in place on the sale of civilian aircraft to Iranian airline companies. These steps have reinforced the downfall of the Iranian currency and the...
In recent months the reformist camp in Iran has been engaged in an intense debate about the movement’s future. This internal debate reflects growing concern among various sections of the Iranian establishment regarding the increasing influence of radical elements (“subversives”) who oppose both main political camps (the conservatives and the reformists) and challenge the very existence of the regime. The debate also reflects the distress of the reformists, who over the last decade have lost their positions of political influence, and...
Iran is the dominant actor in Syria. It dictates the fighting on the ground by the pro-Assad coalition, controls the Syria-Iraq and Syria-Lebanon border crossings, and tailors the re-organization of areas and communities based on an ethnic element. Iran wields much – and often decisive – influence on the pace of fighting, in consultation with Russia and Assad. A multi-tiered approach – including control of the Syrian central axis, territorial contiguity, and logistical and commercial axes – is used by different military groups and...
The Trump-Putin summit was marked by attempts by President Trump to minimize American allegations that Russia interfered in the presidential elections. The meeting also reflected the efforts of the two leaders to forge a close relationship, toward a renewed dialogue between their two countries. In practice, it is doubtful if the meeting saw agreement on the long list of matters on the agenda. Regarding Syria, Putin stated that he and Trump agreed to ensure Israel’s security and borders, according to the 1974 Agreement on...
The campaign underway by the Assad regime for the control of southern Syria, with eyes toward the Golan Heights, is yet another stage by the regime for control of the remaining rebel strongholds in Syria. Israel’s acquiescence regarding the deployment of Assad’s forces in the south, including in the Syrian Golan Heights, indicates that Israel is prepared to accept the return of Assad’s control along the border, though his forces are supported by Shiite militias and his army directed by Iranian commanders. Israel is relying on Russia...
A series of external and domestic challenges, chief among them the decision by President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and renew the sanctions against Iran, will force the Iranian leadership to make pivotal strategic decisions within the coming months. Thus far, the Iranians have acted with restraint and have refrained from making material policy changes in an attempt to contain the damage. Presumably Iran would have no strategic advantage in abandoning the nuclear agreement. However, the...
The nuclear agreement with Iran, which was followed by the lifting of sanctions, marked the beginning of a new chapter in Iran’s relations with Europe, in which both sides set out to rebuild their political and economic relations. The Iranian economy is in need of major investments, particularly in the infrastructure, transportation, energy, and civil aviation sectors. European companies, for their part, view Iran as a large market that was opened to them after years of being denied entry. The potential presented by the opening of...
Various motives have led the EU to strengthen its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the regional bloc that includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait. To this end, the EU has over the years even presented a long list of diplomatic initiatives and policy measures. However, despite the potential for stronger relations, achievements have been limited and many of the initiatives never bore fruit. Consequently, notwithstanding the strategic importance of the Gulf, the European...
The European Union in Turbulent Times: Challenges, Trends, and Signifcance for Israel maps, reviews, and analyzes the urgent issues on the European agenda. The essays in this collection review the political, social, and economic consequences of these issues and assess their significance, both for Europe and for Israel.
The Red Sea, and particularly its southern section surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has in recent years become the site of competition and struggle among regional actors and superpowers alike. In addition to the states along the coast of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, the US, China, Turkey, Iran – which is involved in the war in Yemen – and sub-state actors have a presence there. Thus far there have been no disruptions to Israeli shipping and flight paths, which connect Israel to the Indian Ocean, the Far East, and Africa....
