Depicted at 2018 Munich Security Conference is a challenging view of the global security environment, marked by a dangerous combination of worsening trends regarding the world’s climate, economy, and society; weakening strategic architectures; challenging technologies; and volatile crisis areas, led by North Korea and Syria. The Palestinian issue was marginalized, given its low influence on Middle East problems in general. Indeed, the Middle East is a secondary focus of attention for the international community, currently occupied...
The United States is determined to continue to provide assistance to Lebanon’s armed forces, believing that this military assistance helps maintain state stability. Yet while in his recent visit to Beirut Secretary of State Tillerson stressed repeatedly the administration’s opposition to Hezbollah, it did not appear that the United States has confronted the reality of Hezbollah’s partnership in the Lebanese government, or the identical interests of Hezbollah and official Lebanese government positions. Israel’s official view of US aid...
The war in Syria that began seven years ago is now on the brink of a new stage, as reflected in recent weeks by incidents on the various fronts. Inevitably, the complex fabric of interests among the many elements involved has resulted in conflicts and has renewed the sense of “all versus all.” During the events between Israel, Syria, and Iran on February 10, 2018, Russia worked to stop the escalation from becoming a violent round of fighting. The United States seemed at once present but absent; its voice was not heard...
Turkish-US tensions stemming from Operation Olive Branch in Afrin have brought the deteriorating bilateral relations of the past two years to a new low. Whereas the major aim of the US interests in Syria continues to be preventing the return of the Islamic State, Turkey will continue to take action to take advantage of the post-Islamic State reality in order to achieve its goals vis-à-vis the Kurds. The conduct of all the parties involved in northern Syria will likely continue to be characterized by a sensitive and volatile reality...
Policy changes pursued by the Trump administration, both in the domestic arena as well as in foreign policy, do not fully reflect the positions of the American public. While national security strategy documents issued by the administration focus on rivalries with China and Russia, recent surveys by the Pew Research Center indicate that the North Korean nuclear threat and terrorism are the most disquieting threats to the American public. At the same time, survey results reinforce the message of the strategy documents, whereby...
The Palestinian refugee issue has been seen for some seventy years as a principal obstacle to a resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. However, the expanding numbers of refugees from the Middle East and Africa today challenge the uniqueness of the Palestinian situation. In fact, the issue of Palestinian refugees is perceived more as the reflection of an ongoing lapse by Arab countries, Israel, and the international community, which have been unable to separate the solution to this problem from the greater...
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.
There are two possible explanations for the events on Israel’s northern border that began before dawn on February 10, 2018 with the downing of an Iranian drone that penetrated Israeli airspace. One is Iran’s desire to conduct a covert move to examine its intelligence capability, The second explanation is that Iran initiated a deliberate provocation in order to redefine the rules of the game in Syria against Israel. The Israeli response was extensive and included attacks on Syrian and Iranian targets, and Israel must prepare for...
Israel’s current strategic situation is one of the most favorable the country has known in its 70 years of existence. Nonetheless, its margins of security are narrow, and it cannot rest on its laurels or rely on the IDF’s military power. There must be political action to promote the future of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral state. Israel’s national security challenges are closely interrelated: to confront Iran’s ambitions to increase its regional influence, Israel must build partnerships with regional...
The recent speech by PA President Abbas before the PA Central Council did not signal any substantive change in policy, and despite the sharp rhetoric, left the door open to negotiations and refrained from endorsing proposals toward a one-state solution. At the same time, Abbas, contending that the United States has ceased to be an unbiased mediator, emphasized his clear preference that the international community lead the political process. The fact that Hamas and Islamic Jihad representatives chose not to attend the convention cast...
This paper reviews the evolution of US policy toward Gaza following Israel’s disengagement in 2005. It discusses the effectiveness of the current US approach toward Gaza, and analyzes the key US interests, leverage, and limitations that pertain to the Strip. Finally, based on open-source materials and off the record conversations with former US officials across administrations, experts, and NGO staff working on Gaza, the paper recommends concrete short and long term policy options for the United States in Gaza.
For many years Iran has enjoyed close relations with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip. For years this backing has taken primarily the form of military aid – weaponry and know-how for self-manufacturing and the training of personnel. This was complemented by financial assistance (hundreds of millions of dollars annually) and political backing in public events, in order to place the Palestinian issue on the global agenda.
