After a year in which Iran opted for “strategic patience,” in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue...
On April 8, 2019, the United States announced its decision to add the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to the list of terrorist organizations. This decision followed other decisions by the administration on the Iranian issue, in the spirit of its promise to intensify the policy of “maximum pressure” on the Iranian leadership. While the decision does not have many economic ramifications or add to the economic pressure already leveled on Iran, it represents heightened measures that the administration is prepared to take against Iran. Thus,...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
On February 13, 2019, Iran’s Supreme Leader published a roadmap on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, in which he detailed the revolution’s achievements, and offered advice to Iranian young people for realizing the next stage of the revolution. The roadmap reflects Khamenei’s determination to maintain the values and basic principles of the revolution, both internally and with respect to foreign policy. It does not show any willingness on his part to adapt the revolutionary ideology to...
United States pressure on Iraq to comply with the sanctions against Iran, along with President Trump’s statement about using “US troops in Iraq as a base from which to strike extremists in Syria if necessary” and “to watch Iran,” has sparked tension between Iraq and the United States. The leadership in Baghdad was quick to protest the US intentions, and a bill is under debate in the Iraqi parliament that would prohibit the presence of US forces in Iraq. This tension has spurred Iran to reinforce its...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
The combination of structural vagueness embodied in large cyber operations and their potential to cause real damage makes cyberspace the ideal field of action for Saudi Arabia and Iran and matches their strategic outlook and their concept of the use of force. The risk and the opportunity that cyberspace offers to each of these countries make it tempting, particularly when it concerns the long-term investment of resources. Cyberspace can therefore be expected to become another central arena of conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran,...
The conditions for the campaign between wars, the strategy that Israel has pursued in the northern arena in recent years, have changed, and bring with them new risks that limit or even remove Israel’s freedom to continue operating in Syria. At the same time, the objectives of the strategy have changed, and some of the risks are also an opportunity. If the original campaign between wars objective was to remove threats without resorting to a use of force that might lead to broad hostilities, today it can be argued that the objective is...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
