The economic workshop in Bahrain is the first part of the “deal of the century”; the political portion will apparently be presented only after the Israeli elections in September. The workshop in Bahrain leans heavily on Donald Trump’s political doctrine, whereby the economic power of the United States is the key to resolve economic, political, and social issues. However, a review of peace treaties that Israel has signed shows that the economy has consistently played only a secondary role, behind significant...
The plan of the US president Donald Trump for a political deal between Israel and the Palestinians, dubbed the “Deal of the Century,” includes two chapters: the first— economic—will be revealed in Bahrain in a workshop to be held at the end of June; the second—political—includes reference to the sensitive issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and its launch has been postponed apparently until after the elections and the establishment of a government in Israel in late 2019. The details leaked about the plan indicate that it...
The developing economic crisis In the Palestinian Authority warrants a heightened alert in Israel as to a possible strategic shift in the Palestinian system. The crisis, should it prove protracted, and all the more so should it worsen, is liable to ignite several threats concerning Israel: an expansion of the circle of Palestinians involved in violent acts, specifically civil disturbances and terrorist attacks; difficulties for the PA to provide services in the civilian realm, which could deepen the Palestinian public’s...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Faced with a multi-level dilemma regarding the Gaza Strip, Hamas might choose to respond to Egypt’s efforts to broker a settlement and move toward an acceptance of Israeli terms, in order to bring about a swift improvement in the humanitarian situation and present this to the Gaza population as a substantive achievement. In the cost-benefit analysis that compares this with a toppling of the Hamas government or a reoccupation of Gaza, Israel should accept the existence of a hostile state entity controlled by Hamas on its southern...
March 2019 marks the fortieth anniversary of the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. This signed agreement affirmed peace as the strategic choice of both countries, and in turn distanced them from the danger of war. Over the years, the peace has survived challenges and upheavals, and provided tightened security cooperation around shared interests. However, relations between leaderships and security establishment are not enough, and the time has come to deepen the roots of peace between the two peoples. Reinforcing the civilian...
The public and political discourse in Israel today about the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is grounded in a conceptual binary approach that was formed over the last two decades: striving to resolve the conflict by negotiating a permanent status agreement based on the principle of two states for two peoples between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, or continuing to manage the conflict, as has occurred since 1967. Given that Israel and the Palestinians are currently enmeshed in a political deadlock, the Institute...
The two Fajr/M-75 rockets fired at Tel Aviv on the evening of March 14, 2019 caught the Israeli security establishment – as well as the political echelon – by complete surprise. Whether the rocket fire was a mistake, as declared by Hamas and the IDF, or intentional, both the rockets and the Israeli response are further evidence that Hamas continues its policy of defiance while controlling escalation and dictating the rules of the game with Israel. This means that Israel’s policy of deterrence with regard to Hamas and the other...
Despite ongoing efforts to improve relations between Fatah and Hamas, there is no serious hope of reconciliation between them in the foreseeable future. Noteworthy against this background are the attempts by Hamas and other opposition organizations to challenge both the PLO’s standing as the sole representative of the Palestinian people, and the senior standing of Fatah within the PLO. The Palestinian public, which saw the PLO as its sole representative, understands that it can no longer ignore the dominance of Hamas, which has...
According to the report presented by the Commission of Inquiry (COI) established by the United Nations Human Rights Council to investigate the use of force surrounding the events at the Gaza fence, there are reasonable grounds to believe that in the vast majority of cases the use of live ammunition by Israeli soldiers against the demonstrators was unlawful and may constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity. The report claims that the demonstrations were civilian in nature, had clearly stated political aims, and despite some...
The current campaign along the Gaza border, which began nearly one year ago, differs fundamentally from other struggles Israel has faced in this arena over the last decades, and consequently can be considered a “new campaign.” The struggle waged since March 2018 initially started with independent popular initiatives that were appropriated early on by Hamas, fine-tuned, and adapted to the organization’s needs and objectives, but a year into the campaign, Hamas cannot claim a stellar performance. The Gaza Strip is the most...
In late January 2019, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided not to renew the mandate of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH). It is unclear what prompted the Prime Minister to reach the decision, although reportedly Hebron’s Jewish population pressured the Prime Minister to terminate the TIPH mandate, and the forthcoming April elections also likely influenced the decision. While it is too early to assess the implications of the decision not to extend the TIPH mandate, concern was expressed by international...
