Israel’s national security concept is at a turning point that demands clarification. Since October 7, 2023, it has become evident that Israel’s security policy is, in practice, guided by a new security concept rather than the unwritten security doctrine that took shape over decades. (Despite its flaws, the earlier concept helped Israel become a prosperous regional power. Had it been properly implemented, it might have prevented the colossal failure of October 7, but that is for a state commission of inquiry to determine.) This...
A comparative analysis of Israel’s situation on the eve of October 7 and after three years of war – what has changed in its national strength, conflict arenas, and the national security balance.
“Operation Roaring Lion,” the war against Iran and its proxies, has not yet reached its conclusion. Although the final outcome remains unclear and the current situation may soon shift, the campaign’s distinctive characteristics allow for an interim assessment. This is the most extensive war fought in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War, and the first in which Israel is fighting as an active partner in a coalition with the United States. While its global implications have yet to fully emerge, it is already clear that...
Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project.
The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine...
The concept of victory has become increasingly politicized, particularly the notion of an “absolute victory.” At the same time, the term “decisive defeat” is widely used but rarely defined with precision. This article examines the concept of victory through a professional, military-strategic lens, differentiating it from decisive defeat. The distinction is essential for understanding Israel’s achievements in the war against Hamas and for framing public expectations, especially regarding scenarios in which Hamas may continue to exist...
Donald J. Trump is a unique president. So far, he has proven himself to be an enthusiastic supporter of the State of Israel, and who leads a transformative foreign policy in the Middle East and the global arena. Multiple reasons suggest Israel cannot simply assume such strong US alignment with its interests and policies will persist. Thus, and in light of current shifts in the global, regional, and Israeli-Palestinian contexts, it is necessary to consider which policy goals Israel should set for its relations with Washington for the...
Following two tumultuous years—one of the most significant periods in the history of the State of Israel– this paper offers a preliminary assessment of the far-reaching changes brought about by the Swords of Iron War. While it is too early to fully analyze its consequences, and the war’s end remains uncertain, an interim evaluation is required. Even if fighting resumes, it will unfold under different circumstances, shaped by the lessons created by the war.
This paper reviews and analyzes the key developments of the war,...
President Trump’s initiative for the Gaza Strip, which received the support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and of Arab states, represents an important attempt both to break the deadlock in which Israel has found itself in its war against Hamas and to move from a bilateral confrontation framework to a multilateral process involving the United States and Arab states. The initiative also signals a welcome intention to integrate political and military efforts—through the reconstruction of the Strip and the cultivation of a...
The failure to secure the release of the hostages through military pressure or a binding agreement raises the question of what Israel should do now, given the likelihood that Hamas will refuse the deal currently on the table—or, alternatively, impose conditions that Israel cannot accept. The purpose of this policy paper is to analyze this evolving situation and offer a recommendation for a new and adapted policy.
The war between Israel and Iran, known as Operation Rising Lion, significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state as its status was prior to its war with Israel. It would take Iran at least one to two years to regain threshold status, assuming a decision by Supreme Leader Khamenei to pursue nuclear weapons. However, the war did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities entirely. Iran maintains residual capabilities that could eventually enable the rebuilding of its nuclear program and the...
Operation Rising Lion, carried out on Iranian soil was a highly significant campaign, showcasing operational artistry, excellence, and a sophisticated, complementary international diplomatic effort. Whereas gratification is in order, the campaign must be analyzed objectively and professionally. Were its goals truly achieved? Has an existential threat to the State of Israel been removed? Has Israel’s security situation improved meaningfully or is it caught in a vicious circle of tactical excellence and strategic failure?
Although it...
