On April 8, 2019, the United States announced its decision to add the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to the list of terrorist organizations. This decision followed other decisions by the administration on the Iranian issue, in the spirit of its promise to intensify the policy of “maximum pressure” on the Iranian leadership. While the decision does not have many economic ramifications or add to the economic pressure already leveled on Iran, it represents heightened measures that the administration is prepared to take against Iran. Thus,...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Turkey’s insistence to move ahead with the S-400 deal with Russia, in spite of the American threat that this move would be met with sanctions, is expected to create a rift in relations between Turkey and the United States and the other allies in NATO. Reactions to this move by the administration and Congress are likely to be strong. Apart from the significance for the relations between the two countries, the Turkish step will have geopolitical implications, both in the context of the balance of power between the United States and...
President Trump’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights was well received by most of the Israeli public, but met with disapproval from most of the international community. The American measure clashes with the commonly held position in international law, anchored in the UN Charter, that a country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected, and that wartime acquisition of territory does not confer a right to sovereignty over that territory. Therefore, the international community...
The second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un aimed to achieve the dismantlement of North Korea’s military nuclear infrastructure in return for sanctions relief, but ended abruptly, with no joint document or statement of the two leaders. Most likely the Hanoi experience does not portend derailment of the US-North Korea process, at least for now, and both sides apparently still have an interest to continue cooperation. At the same time, the US and North Korea will find it extremely difficult...
United States pressure on Iraq to comply with the sanctions against Iran, along with President Trump’s statement about using “US troops in Iraq as a base from which to strike extremists in Syria if necessary” and “to watch Iran,” has sparked tension between Iraq and the United States. The leadership in Baghdad was quick to protest the US intentions, and a bill is under debate in the Iraqi parliament that would prohibit the presence of US forces in Iraq. This tension has spurred Iran to reinforce its...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
The international arena has been marked by upheaval since President Donald Trump entered the White House, and policies and measures adopted by the US administration in 2018 have exacerbated the tension. In response, the other key international players, particularly Russia, European countries, and China, have had to adjust their policies to ensure that the unfolding dynamic does not damage their interests. These developments have directly affected the behavior of the international actors in the Middle East, and shaped the global...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
