The violent battle between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon and Syria, and perhaps even outside the Middle East, can be expected to continue and perhaps escalate in the coming year, given the attempts by Syria and Iran to expand their areas of influence in southern Syria and the Syrian Golan Heights. The declaration by Revolutionary Guards officials that Iran will respond to an Israeli operation might translate not only into Iranian support for Hizbollah operations, but also attempts to carry out terrorist attacks abroad, since there...
The turmoil that has beset the Middle East since December 2010 deepened the instability and surfaced various conflicts and tensions that have been characteristic of the region throughout history. These events reveal the importance of non-state actors in the Middle East and give rise to the need to rethink “facts,” terms, and concepts connected to the phenomenon of the nation-state, practically and theoretically. Although non-state actors are not new in the global or Middle Eastern political landscape, it is evident that the...
Recent years have witnessed the accelerated weakening of state actors in the Middle East. In turn, regular state armies are less able to grapple with an ensuing trend, namely, the strengthening of non-state actors and their heightened regional influence. At present, there are not only semi-state entities along Israel’s borders, but also Salafist jihadist terrorist organizations along the entire border in the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. States, which bear responsibility for what happens in their territory and for the...
The attack in the Golan Heights near Quneitra on January 18, 2015, which killed Hizbollah operatives and Iranian Revolutionary Guards al-Quds Force commanders, was attributed to Israel. Iran and Hizbollah appear to be seeking an appropriate violent response to restore deterrence and signal to Israel that they will not accept a change in the rules of the game, but without this leading to war. A January 19 headline in the Lebanese daily as-Safir read: “More than a Response, Less than a War.” The axis has a number of possible responses...
Common to all the parties in the simulation was the desire to avoid being dragged into escalation. All the parties tried to contain the event and confine it to a short round of strikes. Among the restraining factors were the challenge posed by the Islamic State and the weakening of the Shiite axis in the region, Hizbollah’s involvement in Syria, and the dialogue between Tehran and Washington – on both the nuclear question and in dealing with the Islamic State, their common enemy. For Israel, one restraining factor was a significant...
In light of the complex evolving predicament facing Hizbollah, the alleged discovery of yet another infiltration would probably be branded by the organization as an operational victory. Indeed, by uncovering high level infiltrators, the group can project power and efficiency and discredit Israel’s intelligence apparatus. Even more significant, assuming media reports are credible, and although other intelligence assets may still be utilized by Israel, the arrested senior operative and his four accomplices may have contributed to the...
As presented in the Syrian social media, public opinion holds that damage to the US interest in Syria will lead to a conflict of interests between the US and Israel, and an American red light regarding Israeli action against targets belonging to the Assad regime within Syria – as long as the war against the Islamic State continues. It is believed that this strategy, which urges a strong response against the rebel organizations in Syria in response to Israeli attacks in Syria, will restore deterrence against Israel, because even if...
In recent months there have been clear signs of Hizbollah’s legitimacy rebounding in Lebanon’s political and civilian spheres. The current governmental vacuum suits Hizbollah well, and while Lebanon’s army has never been capable of standing up to the challenging array of threats facing the country, Hizbollah is standing steadfast against the current external threat. Ironically, Hizbollah played a role in creating this threat, yet has since become the most effective means of dealing with it. In their despair, more than a few Lebanese...
The consensus in Israel is that Hizbollah was deterred as a result of the Second Lebanon War, that because of the damage sustained by the group and its supporters, it refrained from fighting against Israel, and that quiet that has reigned on the northern border was a result of the war. In fact, most of the arguments supposedly proving that Hizbollah was deterred are less clear-cut than they appear. The majority of Hizbollah’s actions, both before and after the war, can be explained by other factors—domestic Lebanese and...
This article examines the contribution made by peacekeeping operations on Israel’s borders to regional stability since Israel’s establishment, especially in the face of the challenge posed by armed non-state actors in the second decade of the twenty-first century. The article is divided into three parts. The first part presents the main changes in the operating principles of peacekeeping missions from the Cold War to the present. The second provides a concise overview of the rationale for peacekeeping operations on Israel’s borders....
With their respective processes of political evolution and military buildup, Hizbollah and Hamas have gradually assumed semi-state governmental characteristics. Particularly given the weakening of the regular armies in the region in recent years, they now represent the two main immediate threats to Israel. In the aftermath of Operation Protective Edge, therefore, Israel would do well to consider the significance of the recent round of fighting on a possible future campaign against Hizbollah. In other words, at issue is what Hizbollah...
The current presidential crisis in Lebanon presents a concrete danger, internally and externally, that could have an impact on the region in general and Israel in particular. The events are overshadowed by the more dramatic developments in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere, but their dangerous potential cannot be ignored. The escalation of the internal conflict in Lebanon and the spillover of violence could bring the civil war in Syria deep into Lebanon, as has occurred thus far along its borders and at certain points in major...
