As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
2017 was marked by increased Saudi-Iranian hostility, on both the bilateral level and the regional level, and by the strategic balance tilting further in Iran’s favor, intensifying the trend that emerged in the previous year. The new variable of 2017 – the entry of President Donald Trump into the White House – heightened the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and cast a potential shadow over Iran’s room to maneuver. On the one hand, the Trump administration poses a threat to Iran, by casting it as the main cause of regional...
The fourth issue of Over the Net focuses on trends in two different (though not unconnected) arenas that have been at the center of the debate in the Arab world the past few months. The first trend deals with the internal Palestinian reconciliation deal between Hamas and Fatah, signed in October 2017, after a careful, calculated process by the new Hamas leadership led by Yahya Sinwar. Few give this reconciliation any substantive chance of success, but meanwhile all parties gain from it – particularly Hamas. In this context, the...
In a surprising move during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Saad al-Hariri announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Lebanon. Hariri had scathing words for Hezbollah and Iran, accusing them of plotting his assassination. It appears that this move is the result of a decision by Saudi Arabia, taken in the context of its power struggle with Iran. Emboldened and gaining in strength following its achievements in Syria and Iraq, Iran’s successes demonstrate that for now, Tehran has the upper hand in several Middle East arenas. The extent to...
The central issue discussed in the August 23, 2017 meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin was the growing Iranian involvement in Syria and the role that Russia is assigning to Iran in shaping the future political arrangement in the war-torn state. Israel’s struggle against Iran’s growing influence in Syria will be determined by the ability of both Iran and Israel to exercise effective levers of influence on Russia. Russia for its part will try to maneuver between Israeli demands and the need for...
The question of Syria’s future, especially the issue of Iran’s influence and presence in the country, was at the center of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Putin. On the table are a range of possible scenarios of Iranian levels of intervention for which Israel is preparing, against an array of strategic considerations that will influence Iran’s policy. The Iranian threat from Syria does not pose an intolerable security challenge for Israel right now and probably will not in the future, especially if...
Recent weeks have witnessed a change in the public position on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) among senior IDF officers, reflecting sharp criticism of UNIFIL (in)action vis-à-vis Hezbollah. UNIFIL forces have successfully performed their mission of reducing friction between the IDF and Lebanon by means of the coordination and liaison mechanism, thereby contributing to the preservation of calm and preventing unintended escalation. At the same time, UNIFIL has consistently refrained from dealing with the most...
The IDF does not hide the fact that it is preparing for war in Lebanon. These preparations take the form of learning and applying the lessons of the Second Lebanon War while incorporating the modifications required in light of changes in the region’s strategic reality, especially in Israel’s northern theater. The IDF Strategy, published in 2015, which serves as the compass for military force buildup and operation, notes that a war in Lebanon is one of the reference scenarios in IDF preparations. As defined, the IDF required...
This essay deals with Hezbollah’s concept of deterrence against Israel as it developed over the ten years since the Second Lebanon War. The essay looks at the most important speeches by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah during this period to examine the evolution and development of the concept of deterrence at four points in time that reflect Hezbollah’s internal and regional milieu (2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011). Over the years, Nasrallah has frequently utilized the media to deliver his messages and promote the...
Lebanon is no stranger to conflict. Due to a unique mixture of weak political institutions, internal sectarian political divisions, and deep and often aggressive foreign intervention, the small Mediterranean country has time and time again oscillated between war and peace, stability and chaos. The past decade (or more precisely, decade plus) has been especially complex. It began with the shocking and highly disruptive political assassination in February 2005 of twice-Prime Minister, industrial magnate, and all-around post-war...
In the summer of 2006, Hassan Nasrallah predicted that the Second Lebanon War would become a historic landmark and the countdown to the end of the State of Israel. With the same breath, Nasrallah sought to make the war into a milestone on Hezbollah’s road to hegemony in Lebanon. In practice, he failed. The Second Lebanon War did not break apart the camp of Hezbollah opponents in Lebanon, and it also turned the spotlight on the organization’s Shiite identity, its connections to Iran, its dependence on Tehran, and its obeisance to...
The 2006 Second Lebanon War represents a turning point in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).1 This was the first war in history that recorded more unmanned flight hours than manned fighter aircraft flight hours, and that featured sustained UAV use without breaks in situational awareness. Since that war, Israel has continued to develop and absorb additional UAVs, and has used them extensively in operations over the last decade. At the same time, Hezbollah too – which failed in its few attempts to attack Israel with...
