The visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran – the first such visit since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 – offered the three leaders an opportunity to demonstrate their partnership against the West and discuss the challenges they face domestically, regionally, and internationally. Iran viewed the summit as a chance to tighten its strategic relations with the Kremlin, in part in response to the idea of a regional defense alliance led by Washington. Russia...
The talk about organizing regional defense against missiles and drones launched by Iran and its proxies has gained momentum in recent weeks, mainly because of President Biden's visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The issue, which has been discussed for many months in secret meetings, is now aired in public with increasing frequency. In this context, a singular meeting was reported to have taken place in Egypt last March between chiefs of staff from Arab countries (among them Saudi Arabia) and Israel. Before Biden's visit, Admiral...
Recent weeks have seen renewed escalation of repressive political and civil measures by the Iranian authorities. Since early July, the security forces have arrested Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leading reformist political activist, as well as three prominent filmmakers regarded as critics of the regime. At the same time, the authorities, led by President Raisi, have stepped up the campaign for enforcing an Islamic dress code. Underlying the growing repression is the mounting popular protest in recent months, intensification of internal...
The deadlock in the talks between Iran and the United States about a return to the nuclear agreement and the condemnation by the IAEA Board of Governors of Iran’s refusal to cooperate have escalated the tension between Iran and the international community. At the same time, Tehran is taking advantage of the crisis to increase its uranium enrichment to high levels, install advanced centrifuges that will step up its enrichment production, and remove some of the cameras supervising its activity. The coming weeks will be critical...
Disagreements between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his rivals in the conservative camp have intensified in recent weeks. Politicians, media outlets, and hardline clerics have criticized him, reflecting growing dismay with his policy and failure to improve the economic situation. At the same time, disputes have also recently emerged between the government and the Majles on certain issues, and Majles members have even begun an initiative for the dismissal of a number of ministers in Raisi’s government. The tension between...
In recent days, demonstrations have erupted in Iran, particularly in the southwestern provinces of the country, in protest of the sharply rising prices of basic goods. In clashes with security forces, at least three people were killed, and dozens of protesters were injured and arrested. The price hikes are the result of the government’s decision to abolish the official subsidized exchange rate intended for the import of a number of basic food products. The widening gap between the subsidized exchange rate and the free-market exchange...
The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran over a return to the nuclear agreement ended with the text of the deal almost complete. Conclusion of the deal is awaiting political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand, which has met with American opposition, to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the US State Department’s list of foreign terror organizations (FTO). The issue is largely symbolic, since the move would have no impact on the sanctions imposed on the Revolutionary Guards. While...
The Negev Summit focused on images: The countries whose representatives took part in the meeting sought to convey a message of joint organizing for facing shared challenges. The United States also sought to demonstrate a commitment to its allies in the Middle East and to the region’s stability by attending the summit. But in practice, the region’s countries cannot prevent the finalizing of a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran and, apart from Israel, they are deterred from confronting Iran militarily; the Houthis continue to launch...
The recent proposal by a senior Iranian politician for a constitutional change has revived the debate around the possibility of introducing a parliamentary government system to the Islamic Republic. Proposals for constitutional changes have been raised on several occasions over the past decade, and the complex relations between the last four presidents and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have encouraged initiatives designed to pave the way for a replacement of the presidential system with a parliamentary system. Although these proposals...
President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Moscow reflects a strategic decision by the Iranian regime to strengthen ties with the East, at the expense of the trend of openness to the West led by President Hassan Rouhani. This reversal is a point of contention between the political currents in Iran. However, with the support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the leading interests will continue to be an alternative to ties with the West, military strengthening, and political support in international institutions. Israel must take into...
Against the background of the nuclear talks in Vienna, the question arises whether China and Russia can persuade Iran to reach a new deal with the powers. This article reviews how China and Russia percieve their relations with Iran and what their interests are in the negotiations, and assesses whether the talks could achieve agreement over the future of the Iranian nuclear program.
In 2021 Iran saw a change of president and government; rounds of talks that did not produce a return to the nuclear deal; an intensified confrontation with the IAEA; strengthened relations with China and Russia; and initial talks to improve relations with the Gulf states. At the same time, Iran experienced increasing difficulties in Iraq and Lebanon; and continued activities attributed to Israel against the nuclear program and against the transfer of weapons to Syria and Hezbollah, as well as at sea and in the cyber realm.
In the...
