The ongoing attempts to upset the Iranian efforts to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons, whether through kinetic attacks in Syria, diplomatic activity, or clandestine operations in Syria and Lebanon, show the difficulty in deterring enemies from force buildup. The repeated intelligence disclosures about the project for manufacturing precision-guided missiles in Lebanon and the public statements on the matter have failed to halt the project and remove the threat against Israel. Thus if this is indeed a genuine strategic threat to...
The seventh issue of Over the Net looks at trends across the Arab world. The first part focuses on the discourse, albeit limited, about the three non-Arab countries in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Turkey. A thorough examination suggests that for various reasons, and possibly contrary to common assumptions, Arab citizens regard none of the three countries as an existential threat, in comparison with domestic problems or regional issues, such as the struggle against radical Sunni Islam and political Islam. The publication then...
Since its inception, Hezbollah has employed cognitive warfare as a force multiplier for its operations. The organization’s cognitive campaign is designed to encourage support for its actions while rebuffing verbal and media attacks, and to sow fear and deter enemies, with Israel chief among them. In explaining its military involvement in the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah has conducted a public opinion campaign in Lebanon in order to counter criticism at home for participation in a war not its own that has jeopardized the security of...
The sixth issue of Over the Net reviews a number of trends that in recent months have been at the center of the discourse in the Arab world. It first addresses the “Marches of Return,” a series of events that took place adjacent to the border fence between the Gaza Strip and Israel over a period of approximately six weeks, between March 30 (Land Day) and May 15 (the Nakba). These events are examined here on three levels of the public discourse in Gaza: survival, ideology, and narrative. The second topic is the recent elections in...
Given the recent escalation between Iran and Israel in Syria and the development of a direct confrontation between them, the question of the Russian position arises: Is Russia trapped between hawkish factors and being forced, against its will, to position itself as a restraining force or can it benefit from an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, especially as it still controlled and limited? Against this background, Russia strives to find a solution to all the challenges it faces vis-à-vis the West, Iran, and Israel. This is done by...
In view of the public promise by senior Iranian spokespersons that Israel would soon weep over its soldiers just as Iran mourned its soldiers, it remains to be seen if and how Iran will retaliate against Israel’s recent broad counter-attack against Iranian targets in Syria: with what intensity, with what method, and in what location. However, notwithstanding declarations from Iranian leaders that ongoing Israeli actions against its forces and proxies will lead to the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv, it appears that Iran is not...
Despite the two blows Iran sustained last week, Israel cannot afford to be complacent or overly satisfied. It will need to follow meticulously the updated policies adopted by each of the theater’s involved actors. Thus far, Israel has held separate policies regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian proxy war and malevolent influence. Now, it must develop an integrative long term policy and strive for coordinated efforts and meaningful cooperation with the United States, European countries, and the countries of the region....
In the May 6, 2018 elections in Lebanon, the Shia bloc led by Hezbollah succeeded in increasing its power in the parliament at the expense of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s party. Nevertheless, due to the country’s electoral system, the political status quo achieved in December 2016 will likely be maintained. The process of forming the government will once again reignite the power battle between Hezbollah and Iran on the one hand and al-Hariri and his supporters in Saudi Arabia and in the international community, mainly France and...
In the coming days President Donald Trump is to decide whether or not to authorize the continued suspension of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. The US president is required to waive sanctions every 120 days to remain in compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Failure to waive sanctions will result in the automatic reinstatement of American sanctions on Iran, which contravenes the commitments stipulated in the agreement and therefore constitutes a breach of the deal and, in practical terms, an American...
If Israel is in fact responsible for the April 29, 2018 attack in Syria, it is sending the message that it is determined and ready to fight a campaign to prevent Iran from consolidating its position in the northern arena, and that it will act to thwart the Iranian response. A war game conducted recently at INSS intended to clarify the boundaries of the ongoing campaign on the northern front and possible developments toward escalation between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Another goal was to consider a fundamental strategic...
Besides the operational success, the attack in Syria earned the United States a clear political achievement, with the enforcement of American red lines by way of a coalition with Britain and France. However, this ad hoc coalition is focused solely on preventing the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and as Trump administration spokesmen clarified, there is no change in the US policy toward Syria. As such, the United States is threatening neither the Assad regime, nor the growing Iranian presence or Russian dominance in Syria. This...
At the strategic level, the convergence in time and space of the events following the chemical weapons attack in Duma by the Syrian regime portend a dramatic development with substantial potential impact for Israel’s security environment. The attack on the T4 airbase, attributed to Israel, falls within the context of the last red line that Israel drew, whereby it cannot accept Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria. The attack in Duma reflects the Syrian regime’s considerable self-confidence at this time. As for Trump, the attack...
