Israel’s current strategic situation is one of the most favorable the country has known in its 70 years of existence. Nonetheless, its margins of security are narrow, and it cannot rest on its laurels or rely on the IDF’s military power. There must be political action to promote the future of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral state. Israel’s national security challenges are closely interrelated: to confront Iran’s ambitions to increase its regional influence, Israel must build partnerships with regional...
During the final months of 2017, more than 600 people were killed in two terrorist attacks in Egypt and Somalia by two organizations that are allies of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The large number of casualties caused by only two attacks indicates that notwithstanding announcements that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have been defeated, the campaign against terrorism by Salafi jihadist activists is far from over.
As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
The understandings reached recently between the United States and Russia regarding Syria accept the deployment of Iranian forces and Iranian-controlled militias (proxies) on the range from the Golan Heights border – a situation that is entirely unacceptable to Israel. It seems that the time is coming when Israel, if it wants to stop Iran’s influence and consolidation in Syria, will have to become actively engaged in the Syrian quagmire. Israel must demonstrate determination in its demand to remove Iranian forces and...
In his recent speech by at the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed both frustration with Russia’s international situation and the drive to improve its status. Russia proposes to work for a new world order, in which it will be recognized as an important power and will gain a central role in the process of shaping the future order. Putin stressed that Russia already has means, including military means, to pose a significant challenge to the West. And while it is clear that Russia is still far from...
The recent statement by Turkish President Erdogan that Ankara had made an advance payment to Russia for the purchase of two S-400 air defense batteries, combined with Russia’s confirmation of this report, constitutes a significant development that adds to the question marks about Turkey’s future in NATO. This development also strengthens Russia’s standing in the Middle East, because it is another expression of the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara. However, the Turkish-Russian rapprochement does not by itself reduce the...
The recent visit by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Russia was described by Saudi Arabia as historic; Moscow likewise attributed much significance to the visit, because it regards Saudi Arabia as a key Middle East state, and because it saw in it Riyadh’s recognition of Russia’s influence in the region. Despite their differences on Syria and other issues, Riyadh and Moscow have a string of common interests, headed by the goal of stabilizing oil prices. Furthermore, Moscow realizes that not only will it be difficult to enhance its...
The central issue discussed in the August 23, 2017 meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin was the growing Iranian involvement in Syria and the role that Russia is assigning to Iran in shaping the future political arrangement in the war-torn state. Israel’s struggle against Iran’s growing influence in Syria will be determined by the ability of both Iran and Israel to exercise effective levers of influence on Russia. Russia for its part will try to maneuver between Israeli demands and the need for...
The question of Syria’s future, especially the issue of Iran’s influence and presence in the country, was at the center of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Putin. On the table are a range of possible scenarios of Iranian levels of intervention for which Israel is preparing, against an array of strategic considerations that will influence Iran’s policy. The Iranian threat from Syria does not pose an intolerable security challenge for Israel right now and probably will not in the future, especially if...
The arrangement between the United States and Russia over southern Syria represents a test, both for the chances of jumpstarting a coordinated process between the world powers over a future settlement in Syria and for the relations between them on other contested issues. Israel was not mentioned in the context of the ceasefire arrangement, but it has scored several achievements. Nonetheless, Israel is likely to confront an attempt by President Assad to advance forces to southwest Syria and the Golan Heights. Because Assad’s forces...
Although President Trump described the G20 summit in Hamburg as a “wonderful success,” commentators emphasized the extent to which the US has been isolated, claiming that the summit provided additional evidence of the US losing its leadership status. Beyond the issues of disagreement between the US and other G20 members mentioned in the Hamburg Declaration, participants also noted the failure of the US to bring the G20 to condemn North Korea’s missile test. On the other hand, Trump’s encounter with President Putin may have added to...
The “Memorandum to Create De-escalation Zones in Syria,” signed in Astana, Kazakhstan on May 5, 2017 by Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantors of implementation, is the fourth attempt within just over a year to bring about a sustainable ceasefire in Syria. New this time is the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syrian territory. The agreement is thus an attempt to shape the future in Syria, including areas where Israel and Jordan have very clear interests, yet thus far without consideration of these interests. As...
