One may distinguish between two manifestations of political and military strategy: surgical strategy versus therapeutic strategy. In the struggle against Hezbollah, Israel’s prime interest is to drive a wedge between Hezbollah’s Lebanese identity and the fact that it is a Shiite tool driven by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The more Hezbollah integrates into Lebanese politics, the more it becomes a partner with those responsible for Lebanon, casting its own destiny with that of the nation. By contrast, the more Hezbollah leader Hassan...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
The most salient topic in the UN secretary-general’s recent report on the implementation of Resolution 1701 are Hezbollah’s attack tunnels dug from Lebanon to Israel, exposed and neutralized during IDF Operation Northern Shield. Israel’s efforts in this regard, from actions on the ground to diplomatic activity, exposed additional dimensions of the challenging reality in southern Lebanon, particularly Hezbollah’s coordination of activity with the Lebanese government and its armed forces. In light of evident restrictions on UNIFIL’s...
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
Following nine months of difficult and tiresome negotiations, a new government has been formed in Lebanon that includes 30 ministers: 18 from Hezbollah’s relatively united camp, and 12 from Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s divided camp. Hariri was forced to accept almost all of Hezbollah’s demands, first and foremost control over portfolios that will provide the organization with access to national budgets (the Ministry of Health, with its large budget; and the Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs), and the appointment of...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The conditions for the campaign between wars, the strategy that Israel has pursued in the northern arena in recent years, have changed, and bring with them new risks that limit or even remove Israel’s freedom to continue operating in Syria. At the same time, the objectives of the strategy have changed, and some of the risks are also an opportunity. If the original campaign between wars objective was to remove threats without resorting to a use of force that might lead to broad hostilities, today it can be argued that the objective is...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
Five weeks after Operation Northern Shield was launched, Israel can point to an operational-intelligence-technological achievement regarding the threat of tunnels dug into its sovereign territory by Hezbollah on the northern border with Lebanon. Israel exposed and destroyed the tunnels without escalating the situation, while enhancing, to an extent, its long term deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah. Nevertheless, achievement on the accompanying political front is mixed: while Israel enjoys support for its action in the context of its...
On December 4, 2018, the IDF launched Operation Northern Shield to destroy Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnels between Israel and Lebanon. The operation, following intelligence surveillance of a number of years. is underway via a well thought-out plan that combines intelligence exposure, engineering-based targeted action, and cognitive and diplomatic activity, all of which demonstrate clearly to Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular the aims and scope of the operation. The goal is both to minimize the risk of misunderstanding...
