For the United States, which still has interests in the Middle East, a hasty withdrawal of forces from Syria weakens its influence on processes in the region and limits its room to maneuver in the face of existing challenges. The US administration leaves its allies with question marks regarding US ability to back their policies, and at the same time, heightens Iran’s motivation to strengthen its grip and influence in the area. Israel remains alone in its campaign against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and at most will receive...
A planned meeting between the United States and Russian Presidents on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires was canceled at the last minute by President Donald Trump, ostensibly in response to Russian aggression toward Ukraine in the Azov Sea, close to the Crimean peninsula. Cancellation of the meeting highlighted a new low point in the ongoing crisis of relations between the US and Russia. In the days following the cancellation, a positive change was evident in Russia’s tone regarding Israel, and it is not impossible that...
The Six Day War, which broke out on the morning of June 5, 1967, was a formative event that changed the face of the State of Israel and, to a large extent, the entire Middle East. Prior to the war, Israel had been under existential threat and in six days, the Israel Defense Forces succeeded in removing the threat by achieving a decisive military victory and positioning Israel as a significant force in the region. This victory was accompanied by new complexities, and fifty years after the war, some of its implications still remain as...
The results of the Six Day War substantially changed Israel’s strategic situation. Prior to the war, Israel was a small democracy with Western values. The Israeli economy was in a recession due to the ideological positions of its socialist leadership, which was slow to adapt a modern economy to the rapid growth in the private sector. The country identified as part of the Western world, and its hostile Arab neighbors had not accepted its existence as a Jewish state in the heart of the Arab-Muslim region. Israel was secular in...
The downing of the Russian Il-20 plane by the Syrians on the night of September 17, 2018 has become one of the most complex incidents in the framework of Russia-Israel relations, at least since the start of Russia’s intervention in Syria in October 2015. Following an Israeli attack in the Latakia region, a Syrian SA-5 anti-aircraft battery struck a Russian reconnaissance plane, which crashed into the sea, killing its crew of 15. Although it was Syria that failed to identify the Russian plane, Russia chose to blame Israel for the...
The seventh issue of Over the Net looks at trends across the Arab world. The first part focuses on the discourse, albeit limited, about the three non-Arab countries in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Turkey. A thorough examination suggests that for various reasons, and possibly contrary to common assumptions, Arab citizens regard none of the three countries as an existential threat, in comparison with domestic problems or regional issues, such as the struggle against radical Sunni Islam and political Islam. The publication then...
Since its inception, Hezbollah has employed cognitive warfare as a force multiplier for its operations. The organization’s cognitive campaign is designed to encourage support for its actions while rebuffing verbal and media attacks, and to sow fear and deter enemies, with Israel chief among them. In explaining its military involvement in the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah has conducted a public opinion campaign in Lebanon in order to counter criticism at home for participation in a war not its own that has jeopardized the security of...
Iran is the dominant actor in Syria. It dictates the fighting on the ground by the pro-Assad coalition, controls the Syria-Iraq and Syria-Lebanon border crossings, and tailors the re-organization of areas and communities based on an ethnic element. Iran wields much – and often decisive – influence on the pace of fighting, in consultation with Russia and Assad. A multi-tiered approach – including control of the Syrian central axis, territorial contiguity, and logistical and commercial axes – is used by different military groups and...
The control regained by Assad’s army over southern Syria opens a new chapter on the Israel-Golan Heights border. The leaders of Israel and Russia see the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement as the foundation of a future security arrangement. The mission environment of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), entrusted with ensuring the agreement’s implementation, has utterly changed since it was first formed, and UNDOF must make significant adjustments to its modes of operation, considering the challenges it now...
The Trump-Putin summit was marked by attempts by President Trump to minimize American allegations that Russia interfered in the presidential elections. The meeting also reflected the efforts of the two leaders to forge a close relationship, toward a renewed dialogue between their two countries. In practice, it is doubtful if the meeting saw agreement on the long list of matters on the agenda. Regarding Syria, Putin stated that he and Trump agreed to ensure Israel’s security and borders, according to the 1974 Agreement on...
The campaign underway by the Assad regime for the control of southern Syria, with eyes toward the Golan Heights, is yet another stage by the regime for control of the remaining rebel strongholds in Syria. Israel’s acquiescence regarding the deployment of Assad’s forces in the south, including in the Syrian Golan Heights, indicates that Israel is prepared to accept the return of Assad’s control along the border, though his forces are supported by Shiite militias and his army directed by Iranian commanders. Israel is relying on Russia...
Recent months have witnessed ongoing internal rifts and conflicts among the factions identified with al-Qaeda in Syria. The friction and rivalries have been linked to the question of loyalty to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and to the ideology of the organization, and stand out against a background of reversals and upsets of recent years in the network of al-Qaeda’s alliances with partners throughout the Middle East. Events in Syria raise question marks regarding the unity of the al-Qaeda “camp” and the extent of...
