China’s response to the war with Iran appears to be one of non-intervention. Although one might have expected Beijing to stand more firmly by its partner Tehran, China’s response thus far has been relatively restrained. This article offers several explanations for this, including China’s domestic priorities, its desire to avoid further friction with the United States, Beijing’s balancing policy among all actors in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the future of the Iranian regime. At the same time, China is looking ahead to the...
Tensions between Iran and the United States, which escalated following an American military buildup several days after the outbreak of protests across Iran, are currently in a temporary lull. This pause comes amid plans to hold a meeting between the two countries on February 6 in Oman (after a last-minute crisis that put the talks at risk was likely resolved). President Trump is aware of the risk to the credibility of US deterrence should no meaningful achievement vis-à-vis Iran be attained, given the expectations created by the...
The brutal suppression of the protest wave in Iran has led to a radical shift within the reformist camp toward the regime. Senior reformist figures, who in the past adhered to a cautious and restrained discourse and affirmed their commitment to the Islamic Republic’s core principles, have in recent days expressed positions that challenge the very political conception underpinning the current regime. This shift follows years in which reformists emphasized the necessity of evolutionary change over revolutionary transformation. Together...
Despite being subjected to one of the harshest sanctions regimes in the world, Iran has succeeded in building a sophisticated, law-evading mechanism to support its aviation industry, which reflects the broader principles of the shadow economy it has developed. This article maps the operational architecture of that mechanism, based on using front and shell companies in countries with little transparency, layered ownership registries, bursts of activity designed to complete transfers within short timeframes, and flight-path planning...
The 70-year diplomatic relationship between Iran and Thailand has seen ups and downs in recent years. However, Iran’s desire to expand its influence over Thailand’s Shiite population and exploit it for its own interests had not changed over time. In the past year, these efforts have intensified significantly. This paper examines the mechanisms Iran employs to entrench its control over Shiite religious and educational institutions in Thailand, among them sending religious scholars from Iran to ensure that these institutions follow...
The recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Tunisia adds to the mutual decision to abolish visa requirements between the two countries, underscoring Iran’s strong interest in expanding its influence in North Africa in general, and in Tunisia in particular. For the leadership in Tehran, North Africa represents a highly significant geo-strategic region that allows Iran to advance a variety of political, economic, and security interests. Therefore, without a diplomatic move to prevent Iran from pursuing this goal,...
Recent reports from the United Kingdom and Italy about the involvement of Iran’s PressTV television channel in sophisticated influence operations in those countries attest to the ongoing efforts of Iran’s state propaganda network—operated under the supervision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting—to weaken Western nations and amplify the Iranian narrative within them. The ability to curb Iran’s global influence depends, among other things, on the international community’s capacity to disrupt this elaborate system that Iran...
In recent years, and even more so since October 7, Iran has been conducting influence and interference campaigns targeting the Israeli public. These efforts aim to deepen societal divisions and weaken the country from within. Recently, an aggressive Iranian operation was uncovered, designed to recruit Israelis for espionage, terrorism, and to assist Iran in the event of war. The latest revelations about Iran’s long-standing influence and interference operations in the United Kingdom highlight a common ground between Israel and other...
Over the past five years, Iran’s activity in the arena of international terrorism has significantly intensified, spreading across vast geographic regions and incorporating criminal organizations in the execution of terrorist operations. Although most Iranian terrorism attempts have been thwarted, there is no guarantee that this success will persist in the future. It is therefore necessary to examine the characteristics of Iran’s use of terrorism in order to improve the chances of countering it.
This memorandum examines...
Moves advanced by the Trump administration toward countries in Latin America—aimed at strengthening US security, particularly by accelerating the campaign against drug trafficking and illegal immigration into its territory—create a unique opportunity to mobilize the administration to take actions that challenge Iran’s expanding presence on the continent.
Iran’s responses to the talks between the United States and Russia on the future of the war in Ukraine, as well as the confrontation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, reflect internal divisions within the country’s two main political camps. The hardliners view the recent developments as reinforcing their position that the United States cannot be trusted. They argue that Iran must strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia and safeguard its strategic military assets, including its nuclear capabilities. In contrast, the...
The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency represents a particularly concerning scenario for Tehran. Despite initial attempts by Iranian official to downplay this development, it is clear that Iran is highly apprehensive about the election results, especially given reports that it had attempted to assassinate Trump and his hawkish stance toward Iran during his first term. Furthermore, Trump’s return to office finds Iran at a critical crossroads. In the short term, it must decide on the timing and nature of its response to...
