Publications

On March 1, 2025, residents of northern Israel were expected to return to their homes. However, they have also been exposed daily to reports of mutual violations of the ceasefire agreement, both by Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the return of South Lebanon residents to their homes—some even carrying Hezbollah flags and pictures of Nasrallah. Residents with children found the return date problematic, as it required transferring their children to a different educational framework mid-year. Additionally, the return date marked the...

This article discusses the Nagel Commission report on the security budget and force buildup, which was recently submitted to the prime minister, and compares it to reports issued by previous commissions that have addressed this issue (the Brodet Commission and the Locker Commission). The analysis highlights flaws in the broad mandate given to the commission, its timeframe, the validity of some of its conclusions—both in terms of concept and force building—as well as its omission of critical fundamental issues. While adopting the...

Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation. Consequently, we present a preferred course of action: clearing areas controlling the border line to create a security space for Israeli settlements south of it, preventing direct fire of any kind and thwarting the possibility of a...

In the tenth month of the Swords of Iron war, Israel stands at a crossroads in terms of the continued fighting in the Gaza Strip and the broader campaign against Iran and the “Axis of Resistance,” which are directly involved in the conflict. Every decision about the future will undoubtedly have significant economic consequences, especially considering that the projected budget deficit for 2024 is expected to significantly exceed the forecast underlying the current state budget. This is further compounded by the impact of the war on...

Currently, amid the growing debate over the fighting in the Gaza Strip within the context of the Swords of Iron war—what the worthy and attainable goals are and how to achieve them, as well as whether to escalate the campaign in Lebanon, including possibly occupying territory in southern Lebanon—it is worth returning to the IDF’s presence in Lebanon, particularly from September 1982 to one year later when the IDF unilaterally withdrew south of the Awali River. By comparing the decision-making processes, the public atmosphere, and the...

Senior Israeli officials continue to emphasize that Israel will keep fighting in the Gaza Strip “until victory,” but the question of what the public perceives as victory in this military campaign remains open. Using surveys conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies and analysis of media and public discourse in Israel, we claim that there is a disparity between the expectation of a clear image of victory and the actual possible end point. This disparity is also the product of vaguely defined aims, which have also...

The United States administration wants to grant Israel special aid of more than $14.2 billion for the war in the Gaza Strip. An analysis of the items in the proposal, which has not yet earned final approval in Congress, shows that it will enable Israel to renew its inventory of essential munitions – above all, interceptors for air defense. A quarter of the amount will be earmarked for implementing lessons from the war, and the Israeli establishment must formulate appropriate approaches for proper use of this package.

The Campaign Between Wars (CBW) is the term given to the IDF’s significant offensive activity over the past decade. What began in 2013 as specific, targeted actions with limited objectives, developed into an extensive campaign in physical and geographical terms and was anchored in the IDF operations approach, with far-reaching strategic ramifications. CBW did indeed demonstrate advanced capabilities in intelligence and aerial action. But at the end of a decade and in view of significant changes in the region, there is a need to...

The unprecedented attacks against senior IDF officers and the heads of Israel’s other security organizations are not just an attempt to blame them for the severe damage to the fitness and cohesion of the military caused by the widespread public protest against the government’s legislative plan. Nor did these attacks start when the plan was unveiled or when the government began to advance it. In some cases, these attacks are a deliberate attempt to tarnish the image of commanders as authorities in the security realm in order to...

If I am put in a position of being asked to execute something I feel is immoral, unethical, or illegal, I believe I have only one option, and that is to make my point extremely forcefully and then, if I am unable to reconcile that difference simply to resign.[1] Admiral Stansfield Turner, former head of the CIA   Leading a security establishment demands strength and the ability to withstand various types of significant pressure. One such pressure is the need to remain in office even in difficult circumstances, in order to ensure...