East Jerusalem’s Arab neighborhoods are liable to become morbidity hotspots for the coronavirus pandemic, notably during the month of Ramadan, posing a contagion risk to the city as a whole. In light of this danger, and given the underlying neglect in the city’s eastern neighborhoods, Israeli authorities have addressed the pandemic there, albeit incurring friction with Palestinian Authority (PA) representatives – mainly in Kafr ‘Aqab, which is outside the security barrier. Lags in tackling the coronavirus pandemic in the...
This article focuses on the idea, if not the intention, to maximize what is perceived as a window of opportunity to advance the application of Israeli sovereignty to the territories in the West Bank. For an interest group that aspires to this goal, and especially for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there is a sense that under the current circumstances, Israel has an unprecedented opportunity that it will not have again in the near future to apply Israeli sovereignty to settlement areas. This window of opportunity has emerged in...
Out of fears of a COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza as well as a desire to strengthen public trust in the organization and demonstrate its control over the situation, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has proposed an initiative to release prisoners. The initiative led to indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, which may foster a wider arrangement. Israel should not make concessions solely for information on its citizens and the bodies of its soldiers being held in Gaza, but strive to bring them back while also working to...
The Gaza Strip has been in an ongoing crisis since the Israeli disengagement from Gaza in 2005, especially since Hamas took over the territory by force. The situation in Gaza is characterized by economic, social, and infrastructural distress—verging on a humanitarian crisis—and influenced by the political rivalry and struggle for leadership of the Palestinian camp between Hamas on one hand, and Fatah and the Palestinian Authority on the other. Hamas’s inability to provide for the needs of Gaza’s population serves as a motivating...
A war game simulating a large scale outbreak of the coronavirus in the Gaza Strip underscored that Israel has no way to prevent a spread of the pandemic in Gaza, but it can take steps to alleviate the situation. Among the principal proposals: Israel should already transfer vital medical aid to the Gaza Strip; work with the World Health Organization and other relief agencies to mobilize medical resources for the area; avoid obstructing any initiative to establish an emergency government by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; and...
The Palestinian arena was already in a weakened state and at a political, economic, and national crossroads in both the West Bank, under the Palestinian Authority, and the Gaza Strip, under Hamas rule, when the corona pandemic hit. The situation in the West Bank is better than in Gaza, which in part reflects a significant gap in the capabilities of the respective leaderships to confront the crisis. While the Palestinian Authority is striving to prove its ability to deal with the crisis, there is serious concern in the Gaza Strip that...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
“The Deal of the Century,” formulated by the Trump administration, is presented as a new paradigm for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that also shapes the architecture of a new Middle East. The plan recognizes Israel’s extensive security requirements and enables Israel to apply its sovereignty on the settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley, and the isolated settlements; avoids uprooting and evacuating Jewish settlers; and preserves a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. For the Palestinian side, the plan outlines...
The deal of the century has confronted the Palestinians at one of the weakest moments in their history. Their ability to unify forces in order to cope with the challenges that the deal poses is limited due to the gaps between the positions of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas and because of the criticism and lack of confidence shown by the public toward to the two leaderships. Abu Mazen continues to rely on the support of the international community and has made it clear that he does not intend to abandon the path of nonviolent...
Today’s complex and challenging operational environment, in which Israel exercises its military and other capabilities, is the product of a host of intertwined technological, military, social, and political developments. These developments, which have unfolded over the past few decades, include deep global changes in the characteristics of war; geostrategic changes in the Middle East – most of which are outcomes of the regional upheaval and related events (including the dispatch of military forces to the region by world powers);...
The Palestinian system is divided into two sub-systems – the Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the West Bank, and Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip. Even though the idea of intra-Palestinian reconciliation has been on the table for a long time and enjoys broad public support, it is unlikely that it will materialize as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains President of the Palestinian Authority. Abbas consistently demands the dismantlement of Hamas’s military wing and realization of the vision of “one authority, one law, one weapon.”...
