Israel should strive to change the post-fighting political, security and economic reality in the Gaza Strip, in order to avoid a recurrence of the situation that prevailed in the region on the eve of Operation Guardian of the Walls. The previous three rounds of confrontation between Israel and Hamas failed to jumpstart an arrangement that would change the reality in the embattled area. In order to promote change that improves Israel’s strategic environment vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip, Israel will need to decide on an overall...
At a time that the Palestinian issue appears increasingly sidelined on the Israeli agenda, current efforts at rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas are particularly noteworthy. These efforts accelerated following the “deal of the century” presented by President Trump; Israel’s intention to annex portions of the West Bank; and the normalization accords between some Gulf states and Israel. The agreement of the two organizations on elections for Palestinian Authority institutions, along with a prevalent sense in the...
The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
Israel’s enemies are aware of its strength, preoccupied with their own domestic problems, and eager to avoid escalation. However, war in 2021 is possible – in the northern arena and Gaza – following a “dynamic of escalation.” In a war, the IDF would employ lethal offensive capabilities on the ground, in the air, at sea, and in the cyber realm, and inflict considerable damage on its enemies. But in such a war, Israel would likely face massive surface-to-surface missile and rocket fire on the home front, and attacks...
2021 brings hope for the Palestinian political system, which sustained a series of severe blows over the past year: the “Trump plan”; the nullification of Palestinian veto power over normalization between Israel and Arab countries; the COVID-19 pandemic; economic and social crises. The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip has chosen to reach understandings with Israel regarding a period of temporary calm, in order to improve the humanitarian, health, and infrastructural situation. Consequently, for now, the organization is...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
On December 28, 2020 a joint military exercise of the armed resistance organizations in the Gaza Strip was held. Led by Hamas, participants included 13 other organizations, including Islamic Jihad and groups of former Fatah members. In the large-scale exercise, rockets were launched toward the sea, attacks occurred on simulated IDF positions and included abductions of soldiers, and drones and other technologies were displayed. The exercise took place against the backdrop of a severe crisis in Gaza caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the...
“The day after” Abu Mazen need not differ from “the day before,” but that largely depends on Israel. First, Israel must ensure the stability in the public and economic realms in the West Bank that has enabled the relative calm in the region for more than a decade. Biden’s tenure may likewise help stabilize the Palestinian system in the context of “the day after.” The impending turnover in Washington has already inspired calm and cautious optimism in Ramallah. However, the future will also...
The Palestinian system has been going through a process of critical reassessment for several months. There have been some attempts at rapprochement between the two principal camps – Fatah on the one hand, and Hamas and the other factions on the other. The most recent catalyst behind such efforts was the normalization agreement between Israel and the UAE, which was interpreted as a withdrawal of the Arab support for the strategy underlying the Palestinians’ national struggle against Israel. In turn, the Palestinian camps are trying to...
The announcement by President Donald Trump regarding normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates has heightened the Palestinians’ distress and forced them to consider their future. A conference in Ramallah and Beirut on September 3, 2020, with the participation of all the Palestinian factions, reflected their sense of the seriousness of the current challenge. In the closing statement, all agreed on the need to fight the American-Israeli plot by means of “popular resistance,” although at the conference...
