Publications on Coronavirus

The United States’ implementation of a mitigation strategy to combat the coronavirus has been slow and disjointed, and that stands to hinder its ability to cope with the pandemic. The results of the outbreak will likely be significant in the domestic arena, with combined public health-economic crises weighing heavily on political outcomes, changing the way electoral campaigns are run as well as how votes are cast. In the global context, the US is expected to turn inward as it seeks to cope with and then recover from the...

For all the significant differences between fighting pandemics and waging wars, both challenges are matters of life and death that involve complex and multidimensional campaigns. Both require superior crisis management and policy decision making from a broad and integrative perspective, as the quality of these measures may well decide the future of the nation and the civilian population. The cumulative experience of the Israeli defense establishment offers lessons and insights ꟷ in terms of intelligence, strategic and operational...

The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to affect various aspects of the Syrian theater. If the pace of contagion among Iranian elements in Syria and Iran increases, Iran will be hard-put to progress with its Syrian entrenchment program. Damascus’s military gains will slow down, given the situation and the potential damage to the regime’s main sources of support: Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly even Russia. The spread of the virus in Syria and among its neighbors will likely heighten the humanitarian catastrophe afflicting Syria’s...

Saudi Arabia has been hit by the corona crisis at a sensitive and complex time. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to tighten the reins of his power by continuing to arrest senior family members and other senior officials. This joins the tension with Russia surrounding the continued operation of the OPEC+ cartel and the adjustment of oil prices that led to a fall in world oil markets. All these have converged to create a host of challenges that put tremendous strain on the Saudi decision making apparatus, which is more...

The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...

Iran is going through one of the most severe depressions it has ever experienced – a function of the corona epidemic, the difficult economic situation due to sanctions, a fall in the price of oil, and a growing lack of trust on the part of the public toward the regime. Tehran is trying to use the pandemic to pressure the United States to lift the sanctions, or at least relax them, but the US administration has made it clear that it does not intend to do so, and in fact, recently imposed new sanctions. At the same time, the...

The spread of the coronavirus is a national security crisis for Israel that demands a multidisciplinary strategy to confront the crisis. It requires the appointment of a campaign operator to govern public health measures, secure economic and societal strength, and prepare for the various consequences of the epidemic. As part of the strategic process, we recommend a core idea that is based on a phased approach to the crisis. Stage 1, the current stage, involves a lockdown in order to control the rate of morbidity and buy time so that...

Israel’s management of the coronavirus epidemic is proving to be one of the most challenging events since the establishment of the state. To judge by the emerging indications, this is a fourfold crisis, relating to public health, the economy, the national mindset, and politics. Given the intensity of the crisis and its likely intensification, the IDF has begun preparing for active and broad participation in the national effort to manage the crisis. First steps have already been taken, mainly by the Homefront Command (HFC). This...

It is no exaggeration to say that this is the first time since World War II that such large parts of the world’s population have faced a multi-system crisis with severe and long term consequences as those of the coronavirus pandemic. In the early days of the spread of the virus it was already clear that even though the world is aware of the dangers of nuclear, chemical, and biological war and has even adopted treaties and conventions with the purpose of restricting the production and proliferation of such weapons, it is not...

Israel is in a state of emergency: schools are closed, businesses are shut, and people continue to lose their source of income. Optimal handling of this dramatic challenge demands a combined strategy. The primary thrust, prevention, protection, and containment, must be complemented by a strategy to promote societal resilience as the secondary effort. The former is intended to block or slow the spread of the disease, while the latter is designed to ensure functional continuity, so as to enable the threatened national system to bounce...

The coronavirus outbreak has been accompanied by rumors and fake news that aim to increase fear about the pandemic or to assign blame for its spread. The rumors are promoted by states with an interest in hiding their domestic situations or diverting attention from their handling of the issue, by ingenuous civilians, and by conspiracy theorists and the media, which repeat some of the lies. Over time there is a greater awareness of the dissemination of baseless or biased information, and a greater need to address the phenomenon. This...

A seminar at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on political and security implications of the corona crisis underscored the prevalent uncertainty regarding the situation, but also highlighted several instructive points. The biggest threat to the global (and Israeli) economy derives from the slowdown or negative growth in the United States, and at the current stage, the American ability to meet the crisis effectively is not clear. As for Israel, the risks of escalation in the northern arena and the Gaza Strip have...