After approximately a year and a half of war in the Gaza Strip, Israel stands at a crossroads and must formulate a relevant strategy regarding the future of the Strip. It faces a rather grim range of alternatives, all problematic in their implications and feasibility: encouraging “voluntary emigration”—an option whose strategic consequences have not been thoroughly examined in Israel and whose feasibility is low; occupying the Strip and imposing prolonged military rule—while this may severely weaken Hamas, it does not guarantee its...
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation to examine the possible implications of a situation in which Israel, Hamas, the United States, and other actors in the Middle East find themselves at a decision-making crossroads due to a disagreement over the second phase of the hostage release framework.
The simulation illustrated the strategic complexity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the negotiations surrounding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the path toward ending the war. The...
Although the concept of conflict management led to the events of October 7, Israel is still entrenched in the approach of “indefinite conflict management.” Its conduct results in control over all dimensions and aspects of the Palestinian population in the West Bank (and possibly also in the Gaza Strip), which in practice would constitute a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the sea.
Since the “two states for two peoples” framework, which includes a fully sovereign Palestinian state, is not feasible in the...
On October 7, 2023, Israel was subjected to a large-scale surprise attack launched by Hamas and additional terrorist organizations from the Gaza Strip. During the assault, approximately 6,000 terrorists infiltrated Israeli communities near the border and IDF bases in the area, while 4,300 rockets were simultaneously launched into Israel’s civilian hinterland. The attack resulted in the murder of 1,163 Israelis and the abduction of 251 others.
Since then, The IDF has dismantled Hamas’ military capabilities—striking over 44,000...
The growing criticism of Hamas following the October 7 massacre and the significant damage it has caused to the Palestinian cause are pushing the debate between Hamas and Fatah toward a resolution. Abu Mazen is taking advantage of the situation and attempting to accelerate reforms that he previously rejected, in order to prevent the “elimination” of the Palestinian issue—meaning its removal from the agenda—and to shape what will happen the day after. The Arab states that seek a settlement and strive for dialogue with the West see eye...
An analysis of the official statement on the Arab initiative for Gaza’s reconstruction reveals a highly problematic declaration. Published in Arabic, the statement glorifies the resilience of the Palestinian people against Israeli aggression and includes harsh rhetoric condemning Israel’s alleged “crimes.” This language implicitly elevates and legitimizes Hamas, despite the statement’s token denunciation of terrorism—without explicitly condemning Hamas, Hezbollah, or Palestinian militants in the West Bank. For Israel, the lessons of...
While mainstream Israeli media has presented Hamas’s propaganda—which highlights the triumph of jihadist ideology, Israel’s humiliation, the release of Palestinian prisoners, the disruption of normalization with Saudi Arabia, and the group’s military and civilian resilience in Gaza—Palestinian social media in Gaza and the West Bank tells a different, more complex story. This discourse includes harsh criticism of Hamas, fears that Gaza’s devastation could extend to the West Bank, and even calls for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to...
Israel did not achieve its primary war objectives against Hamas—namely, the complete dismantling of its military and governmental capabilities. Despite suffering significant losses that outweigh its achievements, Hamas has managed to survive. Therefore, at this stage, Israel should focus on two key efforts: finalizing the framework for the return of the hostages—an imperative rooted in Jewish tradition and its moral significance in Israeli society; and leveraging the notion of expelling Gaza’s residents, as proposed by US President...
President Trump’s initiative for the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza may indicate a shift in the approach to addressing the region’s widespread destruction and the lack of housing for residents displaced by the war. Trump’s plan also seeks to involve Egypt and Jordan in actively resolving the challenges posed by this situation. If the initiative is indeed implemented, the process should be carried out with the consent of all those involved, offer meaningful incentives, and establish international oversight to protect the...
The war that broke out on October 7, 2023, has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of the global, Middle Eastern, and Israeli agenda. The debate over how to address—let alone resolve—it continues as it has for the past half-century, and in various forms—for more than a century. Why have all attempts at an agreement failed since the Oslo Accords, and what does this suggest about the prospects for resolving the conflict? In light of its frustrating persistence, the conflict continues to generate a range of opposing...
In the past two years, there has been a dramatic increase in the scope of terror attacks in the West Bank and within the Green Line (see Figure 1). According to data of the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet),[1] 6,828 terror attacks were carried out in 2024 (including stone-throwing and Molotov cocktails), double the number of attacks in 2023 at 3,436 attacks. Nonetheless, in the West Bank and Jerusalem, there was a 44% decrease in the number of significant attacks (including vehicular attacks, stabbings, shootings, and explosive...
The deal to release the hostages is reshaping the course of the military campaign in the Gaza Strip but leaves Israel facing complex strategic challenges. While the agreement may achieve the objective of bringing the hostages home, it also highlights the failure to eliminate Hamas. Israel has not succeeded in establishing an alternative to the organization during the long months of war. As a result, Hamas will continue to pose both security and civilian challenges. Compared to the options such as imposing military governance,...
