In 2013, Israel’s national security balance sheet was largely positive. In contrast, in the second half of 2014, complex and problematic processes underway in the region – including the efforts to contend with the Iranian nuclear program, the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the upheaval in the Arab world, and stature of the United States in the Middle East – can be expected to pose significant challenges to Israel’s security. The positive components of the balance sheet should make it easier for Israel to...
In late July 2013, after nearly a five-year freeze, a new chapter was opened in the Israeli-Palestinian political process. Under the sponsorship of the US administration, the latest round of talks between Israel and the PLO was launched in Washington. The two sides returned to the negotiating table skeptical regarding the chances of formulating a permanent agreement, and with the idea that should the talks fail, they would be able to place the blame on the other side. And while both sides were pessimistic as to the outcome of the...
This article presents a balance of Israel’s strategic security situation, and suggests that the current balance is generally positive. It maps the security challenges and considers how Israel can best deal with the challenges before it, while arresting negative trends and taking advantage of opportunities to stabilize and enhance the positive aspects of the balance. The analysis features a multidisciplinary approach, examining the interface between the various challenges through an integrated look at political, diplomatic, social,...
The purpose of this article is to examine the attitude of civil society in Israel to the political process with the Palestinians, with particular attention to implementation of an agreement between the Israeli government and the Palestinians should one be reached in the framework of the talks that began under American auspices in late July 2013. The article first analyzes public opinion in Israel on matters pertaining to a permanent agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and the alternatives available to Israel if the...
Current discourse on Palestinian and Lebanesesocial networks indicates that a surprising trend has emerged over the past sixmonths with potential momentous consequences for Israel’s security concept and thestrategic challenges before it. The violent resistance (muqawama)against Israel by Hizbollah and Hamas has lost much of its legitimacy in Lebanese civilsociety and Palestinian society, respectively. Hizbollah and Hamas were foundedas Islamic resistance movements based on the principle of violent struggle asboth a vision and...
The prevailing opinion in Israel and among many American and Palestinian officials is that chances are slim that the current negotiations will lead to a real breakthrough that will promote a full settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. Yet while the assessment is reasonable, powerful considerations could in fact lead the two parties to decide to make a material change in their positions. This article examines the possibility that a fundamental and perhaps even dramatic change will occur in the familiar Palestinian...
An estimated one third of Palestinian society today are active users of social networks, which feature frequent discussions on Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian identity, internal Palestinian conflicts, the relationship between the population and its leaders, the economic situation, and the impact of regional changes. New Media has thus become a platform for an open Palestinian discussion that highlights the complexity and the different processes within Palestinian society in Gaza, the West Bank, and East...
In a press conference in Amman, Jordan on July 19, 2013, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that Israel and the Palestinians had reached an agreement constituting a basis for renewing the negotiations on a permanent status agreement. By creating a delicate balance in key areas of contention, Secretary of State Kerry has succeeded in bridging the gaps regarding the conditions set by the two sides for opening negotiations. Yet it is important to recognize that resumption of actual negotiations has not been agreed on, and there...
From the outset of the Oslo process twenty years ago, Israeli governments have declared their support for the principle of two states for two peoples, and have worked – some more, some less – to implement it through negotiations or unilaterally. The negotiations that are about to start rely on the rationale of previous rounds of diplomacy: ensuring the future of the State of Israel as the secure, democratic nation state of the Jewish people. At stake is an historic compromise, whose essence is territorial division of the land between...
On June 20, 2013, at the end of a routine visit to the region, Lady Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, met in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As expected, the Israeli-Palestinian issue was a main topic of conversation. The Prime Minister reportedly asked Ashton to withhold publication of a statement by EU foreign ministers condemning Israel for construction in the Jewish settlements on the West Bank and presenting the EU principles for a resolution of...
The question whether ultimately to hold a national referendum regarding a political settlement with the Palestinians will be echoed if the government makes a unilateral decision on annexation of territories, or alternatively, if Israel withdraws to the line of the security fence – or any other line – while evacuating the settlements east of that line. Insofar as Israel stands to make fateful decisions on important political issues, and there are already calls to hold a referendum, it is necessary to discuss a mechanism for this...
A massive evacuation of settlements located outside the large settlement blocs, home to about 100,000 residents, will be necessary if future Israeli governments seek (or are required to) implement the principle implied by two states for two peoples. This will be highly challenging, traumatic from a human and societal perspective, and politically problematic. Thus there is a need to examine other, less conventional ideas that could reduce the number of Israelis living beyond the final borders of the State of Israel who will need to be...
