Publications on Iran

The interim agreement between Iran and the world powers, led by the United States, entered into force in January 2014 and was designed to allow six months of negotiations on a final agreement. Now, halfway through this period, it appears that Tehran and Washington have begun to implement their negotiations tactics and have chosen respective strategies to shape the final agreement and market it as a strategic accomplishment. This situation requires both a more flexible Israeli position and improved US-Israeli coordination so that any...

Over the course of 2013, Iran became one of the most active players in the international cyber arena. Iran’s progress can be attributed to a combination of two elements: a certain easing of the restraints on offensive activity in cyberspace by Iranian decision makers, and a qualitative leap by the Iranian cyber warfare system. The rapid development of Iran’s cyber warfare capability means that Israel and other Western countries must work decisively and systematically to maintain qualitative and operational superiority in cyberspace....

The claim by US negotiator Wendy Sherman that “verification” is the key element in ensuring that the Iranian nuclear program is and remains completely peaceful has resonated in a string of US statements in the same vein, aimed to reassure skeptics that the United States will be able to detect and deal in a timely manner with an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons. However, while verification is no doubt an essential component of any comprehensive deal with Iran, it should not be regarded as the linchpin of a successful agreement....

In the recent incident in which an IDF patrol on the Golan Heights was struck by a roadside bomb, all signs point to the bomb’s having been placed by Hizbollah-backed forces, apparently with the knowledge and aid of Assad’s forces. Indeed, it is likely that all three incidents in March – two on the Syrian border, in territories controlled by the Assad regime and Assad loyalists, and the third in the area of Mount Dov, a Hizbollah stronghold – were Hizbollah attacks against Israel.

The March 5, 2014 seizure of the Klos C is a blow to Iran, which clearly invested considerable effort and resources in organizing the weapons shipment and attempting to conceal the ship’s course and cargo. This was not the first time that Israel succeeded in intercepting such shipments, and it thus proved again that it has significant intelligence capability to penetrate the Iranian system, as well as the operational capacity to take targets by surprise and act hundreds of kilometers from Israel’s borders. Yet while the Klos C...

Recent days have seen three important events related to Iran: the start of the talks in Vienna between Iran and the major powers on a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear program; publication of a report by the IAEA stating that Iran is fulfilling its commitments under the interim agreement; and a well-publicized visit to Israel by Wendy Sherman, head of the American negotiating team in the talks with Iran. This cluster of events obligates decision makers in Israel to reexamine the two main questions concerning policy toward the...

  On January 20, 2014, IAEAinspectors visited Natanz and Fordow to verify that Iran began implementing theinterim deal with the P5+1 by halting its enrichment of uranium at thesefacilities to 20 percent. The last two months were spent rehashing the terms ofwhat had ostensibly already been decided in late November in Geneva, althoughthe different versions of the agreement that were released by Washington andTehran at the time immediately revealed that the two states were not on thesame page, which did not bode well for the...

  2013 was the most violent year inIraq since 2008, a reminder that the war for Iraq is far from over. The latestoutbreak of violence in Anbar Province follows the dismantling of a Sunniprotest tent and the arrest of a Sunni member of parliament, in the course ofwhich the MP’s brothers and five bodyguards were killed. The recent outbreak ofviolence in Anbar Province is not only serious in and of itself, but is also asymptom of several illnesses of the Iraqi state, and is primarily connected to theSunnis’ anger at their ejection...

Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...

In 2013, Israel’s national security balance sheet was largely positive. In contrast, in the second half of 2014, complex and problematic processes underway in the region – including the efforts to contend with the Iranian nuclear program, the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the upheaval in the Arab world, and stature of the United States in the Middle East – can be expected to pose significant challenges to Israel’s security. The positive components of the balance sheet should make it easier for Israel to...

In 2013, the nuclear crisis was still far from resolved, and Iran has continued to press forward with its nuclear program. Even taking into account the dramatic developments since Rouhani was elected president and the biting effect of economic sanctions that have pushed him to negotiate, our question this year nevertheless remains basically the same as last year’s question: namely, is there a real prospect for resolution of this ongoing crisis in the coming months. Continued nuclear advances bring Iran’s nuclearization ever...