Many recent reports have described a gradual weakening of the Islamic State, especially with the loss of territory in Syria and Iraq and the consequent disruption of a flow of revenue. However, the damage to income has no immediate effect on Islamic State capabilities to carry out terrorist attacks outside the territory under its control, and broader efforts than have been made thus far are required in order to destroy the organization completely. Rather, what may be at work is a transformation from a semi-state organization to a...
This paper aims to analyze still unnoticed aspects of the so-called Islamic State’s cyber jihadist campaign in order to indicate its potential utility for state-sponsored information warfare. To begin with, it tends to present the most important features of the “Islamic Caliphate’s” online campaign, which aims to generate the “viral effect”. Moreover, the paper attempts to provide an overview of earlier military conflicts, in which the viral effect could be noticed. And finally, based on these considerations, it answers the question...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
The article addresses the question of the future of Syria and Iraq after the Islamic State is defeated. This question, which has become more trenchant following the stepped up military effort to conquer the Islamic State’s strongholds in the second half of 2016, is given a mixed answer: the concrete materialization of the Salafi jihadist idea, i.e., the organization’s territorial base, may be defeated, but its historical and religious sources will continue to inspire efforts to realize it anew, and will therefore continue to...
In their second televised debate, which focused on US foreign policy issues, first and foremost Syria, Clinton and Trump disagreed on the identity of the enemy, how to reach a resolution in Syria and Iraq, and the role the United States should play in resolving the refugee crisis triggered by the fighting in these states. The difference between the two presidential candidates is deeply ideological and not merely tactical, and carries with it long term ramifications, assuming that the policies articulated by each candidate will be...
Wilayat Sinai, an organization identified with the Islamic State, has recently suffered a series of serious blows from the Egyptian army. Most prominent among them was the air strike in early August 2016 that killed dozens of senior commanders, launched as part of a targeted campaign against terrorism in Egypt in general, and in Sinai in particular. Yet despite the significant decrease in the effectiveness of the organization’s operations over the past few months, it is too early to state that Egypt is on the verge of defeating...
The threat posed by the Islamic State to many nations has led to the formation of an international coalition whose forces have been bombing Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria. Some of the bombings in Syria have targeted the strongholds of the Khorasan group. Very little is known about this group. It appears to be an international terrorist cell that settled in Syria under the cover of the country’s chaos in order to plan attacks against the West and train its members to carry them out. In September 2014, the United States...
The discourse on the root causes of the Boko Haram domestic terrorism group rages on in Nigeria, as extremists continue to lure destitute militants to their cause. Counter-terrorism needs to focus its efforts on eradicating the breeding grounds for these impoverished sympathizers. A new strategy and a new method should be adopted to prevent the threat of domestic terrorism. Fighting domestic terrorism with human development, specifically social and economic development, should emerge as a new public narrative and long-term objective...
The history of the Islamic State in the last two years indicates that the hopes of the international coalition operating against global jihad to eradicate the phenomenon militarily have been dashed. Despite its military defeats, the Islamic State and its allies still have vast territorial, economic, and human resources available. It thus seems that its ability to continue to serve as a significant, central actor in the international area and be the focus of attention in international media and political discourse has not ebbed. A...
On January 17-19, 2016, INSS held the latest conference in its annual conference series, “Security Challenges of the 21st Century.” The aim of this article is to bring together the key insights from the conference in a complete and coherent picture and use them as a basis for outlining policy recommendations to help the Israeli government contend with the challenges before it. • According to the situation assessment of Israeli policymakers, the current dangers stemming from the options that deviate from the status quo outweigh the...
The instability racking the Middle East of the past five years shows little sign of abatement, and every new conflict or war – between states and within states – constitutes another link in the chain of social, ideological, political, and territorial upheavals sweeping the region. With the Middle East thus having become a region marked primarily by violence, regional and international leaders must focus their attention on both defensive and offensive measures designed to reduce the potential for damage and destruction inherent in...
Although the threat of prior decades to Israel of conventional, high intensity warfare launched by armies of neighboring nations or a coalition of Arab nations has been vastly reduced, Israel faces three major threats of a different type. The first is the threat from the Iranian-led Shiite axis, which includes Iranian allies, not all of which are Shiite, and is known as the “axis of resistance” because of its ideology that is directed at the West and Israel. The second is the threat resulting from the failure to settle the...
