Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation. Consequently, we present a preferred course of action: clearing areas controlling the border line to create a security space for Israeli settlements south of it, preventing direct fire of any kind and thwarting the possibility of a...
Recently, the public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah. This article focuses on the severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war. The analysis puts forward the need to carefully consider the risks posed by such a war to the civilian sphere, especially as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues.
Since the beginning of the Swords of Iron operation, Hezbollah has been using drones for intelligence gathering and launching attacks against Israel. Daily attacks using explosive drones have also become frequent, as well as rocket and anti-tank missile barrages and rotary drones. While some drones have been intercepted, many have breached Israeli defenses, causing casualties and property damage. Hezbollah mainly uses Iranian suicide drones and recently employed a missile-carrying drone for the first time, against Israel....
Although Hezbollah and Iran are not yet interested in a large-scale war, Israel’s campaign against Lebanon could escalate under two main scenarios: (1) If Hezbollah continues to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza persists or if Iran requests that the Lebanese-based group becomes more involved in its campaign against Israel; (2) If Israel launches an extensive operation that ignores the “rules of engagement” with Hezbollah, aiming to change the security situation on the northern border and facilitate the return of the...
As part of the American-led efforts to use diplomatic means to end the fighting that has been ongoing for nearly five months between Israel and Hezbollah, the need to demarcate an agreed-upon border between Israel and Lebanon was also on the agenda. The Lebanese government is eager to include border demarcation in any ceasefire agreement and has adopted the same policy on this matter as Hezbollah, linking an end to the fighting to the cessation of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and presenting a hardline maximalist approach to...
Israel has been fighting against Hezbollah along the northern border since October 8. The combat escalation in recent weeks, after the IDF intensified its operations, has included targeted assassinations, and there is concern that the situation could deteriorate into all-out war. An interim assessment of the situation suggests that Hezbollah, which seeks to maintain the operational equation against the IDF, has fewer achievements than it hoped for. Its most significant achievement was the result of the Israeli decision to evacuate...
Since the outbreak of the war on October 7, underway along the Lebanese border as well as inside the Gaza Strip, the Israeli media has highlighted the determination of people evacuated from northern communities not to return to their homes until the security situation improves. This is mainly due to fears of a ground attack against their communities. Surveys conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reflect these sentiments, but also indicate that – contrary to the public and media discourse – the public in...
The Campaign Between Wars (CBW) is the term given to the IDF’s significant offensive activity over the past decade. What began in 2013 as specific, targeted actions with limited objectives, developed into an extensive campaign in physical and geographical terms and was anchored in the IDF operations approach, with far-reaching strategic ramifications.
CBW did indeed demonstrate advanced capabilities in intelligence and aerial action. But at the end of a decade and in view of significant changes in the region, there is a need to...
Since the start of the war in Gaza, the IDF has been involved in a low intensity conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border with Hezbollah and Palestinian elements operating there with its approval. Hezbollah fired the opening shot (on October 8), but has so far limited its activity: mainly firing rockets and guided anti-tank missiles, and attempting to infiltrate into Israel. The IDF’s symmetrical but determined response, which has caused the death of dozens of Hezbollah operatives, led to a reduction in the scope of action from...
A series of provocations by Hezbollah has caused rising tension along the border between Israel and Lebanon. The most severe recent incident involved the tents erected in the Mt. Dov area, which Israel considers to be within its territory. These provocations, along with the heightened threats by the organization, reflect Nasrallah’s increasing confidence, or at least his readiness to take greater risks vis-à-vis Israel. This confidence is grounded in his belief that the internal crisis in Israel undermines IDF capabilities and the...
Israel must use every possible means to remove the Hezbollah tents at Har Dov. The political process should be fully exhausted, but limited in time. If it fails, Israel should take action to remove the tents, even at the price of risking a deterioration into a limited conflict on the ground.
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel. Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for the Megiddo attack, despite clear evidence of its involvement, and it remains unclear to what extent it was involved in the rocket fire from areas of southern Lebanon that...
