While Syria’s regional standing has been granted a new lease on life, internally, Syria is a failed and disintegrating state, where both the economy and the security situation are deteriorating. The internal chaos, Iran’s insistence on maintaining a foothold, and the growing self-confidence of President Bashar al-Assad, who may become less inclined to ignore repeated Israeli airstrikes, obligate Israel to adapt the military campaign it has conducted in Syria over the past decade to the new reality, validate its goals, and define what...
Over the past year, the Syrian military, which was severely weakened due to the civil war, has undergone accelerated reconstruction processes. This coincides with the civilian reconstruction in Syria, and necessarily proceeds at its expense. Although the Syrian military faces many challenges and is far from posing an immediate threat to Israel, these reconstruction efforts demand attention; some have already created potential strategic threats to Israel: on the conventional side – missiles, UAVs, and air defense systems; and on the...
The recent visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Syria marked a significant achievement for Iran, as it was seen partly as a response to the normalization process between Israel and several Arab countries. The visit was presented by both countries as a demonstration of unity amidst a changing regional reality and a victory for the so-called axis of resistance. It took place against the backdrop of the improving relations between Iran and Syria and several Arab states, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil, and...
The trend toward rapprochement in the Middle East continues, with the expected renewal of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria. The regional détente process in various arenas changes Israel’s strategic environment and requires that it rethink what current regional architecture can better curb Iran.
The Campaign between the Wars (CBW) has been the IDF’s most important campaign in recent years in Syria. Considerable allocations seek to ensure its continuation and its success – both monetary resources as well as time and attention from Israel’s security and political systems. Israel must continually examine and analyze the effects and implications of the CBW, while promoting actions that strengthen achievements in the sense of realizing the country’s security interests. However, despite the dynamic and evolving situation, Israel...
Current Situation – Economic crisis and continued Iranian entrenchment in Syria · Hezbollah maintains military buildup · Lack of governance and economic collapse in Lebanon | Current Israeli Strategy – Campaign between wars in Syria and mutual deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah · Non-intervention in Syria or Lebanon on the political level | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Hezbollah’s ongoing buildup and Nasrallah’s false sense of confidence are escalation catalysts · No Israeli strategy vis-à-vis the Lebanese state ·...
The relations between Syria and Turkey have gone through several changes over the past year. Just a few months ago, the President of Turkey threatened to launch a new military operation in Syria, with the aim of completing a 30 kilometer-deep security zone to settle one million Syrian refugees living in Turkish territory. However, in late December there were increasing reports that Turkey and Syria had begun talks with the aim of reaching a formal settlement, whereby Ankara would recognize the Assad regime and renew diplomatic,...
Against the background of unprecedented economic crises, a thriving industry of drug production and smuggling has developed in Syria and Lebanon. Syria has become a narco-state under the auspices of the regime, for which drug revenues are a principal source of income; revenues are also important for elements in Lebanon, chief among them Hezbollah. The main drug traded is Captagon, an addictive member of the amphetamine family – also known as “Captain Courage,” “poor man’s cocaine,” and “the jihad drug,” due to its wide use by...
Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and...
The recent air attacks in Syria are attributed to Israel, the regional prestige of the Assad regime is on the rise, and Israel-Russia relations are growing tense. This backdrop invites a debate on the continued validity of Israel’s “campaign between wars” policy in Syria. The article concludes that Israel should develop a multidimensional plan against the threat on the northern front, in which the air attacks will be one element of a comprehensive campaign.
Extending the peace of the Abraham Accords and giving it strategic depth and permanence so that it includes more countries in the Middle East requires making peace between Syria and Israel, because Damascus is a key element toward regional peace and stability. The collapse of the Tehran-Damascus axis upon the departure of Assad can translate into the establishment of peace between Syria and Israel, although this must occur with the help of the Syrian people themselves. After the departure of Assad, there are three critical steps to...
