In a surprising move during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Saad al-Hariri announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Lebanon. Hariri had scathing words for Hezbollah and Iran, accusing them of plotting his assassination. It appears that this move is the result of a decision by Saudi Arabia, taken in the context of its power struggle with Iran. Emboldened and gaining in strength following its achievements in Syria and Iraq, Iran’s successes demonstrate that for now, Tehran has the upper hand in several Middle East arenas. The extent to...
In the months since President Rouhani was reelected for a second term, the two main political camps in Iran have deliberated their future directions. In the conservative camp, in light of the series of defeats that it suffered in recent years, there has been a call for soul-searching. The majority of the self-criticism focuses on the conservatives’ failure to recruit public support, particularly among the young generation. In the reformist camp, the discussion revolves around the benefits of continuing the cooperation with President...
In a swift military campaign, the Iraqi government regained control of Kirkuk from the Kurds. This move was made possible when Iran, led by Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, reached an agreement between the leaders of the PUK – the political enemies of Masoud Barazani, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government – and the Iraqi government regarding withdrawal of the Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk. The loss of Kirkuk is a severe blow to the economy of the region and severely damages the ability of the Kurds to realize their...
After weeks of rising tension in anticipation of the October 15 deadline to recertify the JCPOA, President Trump explained his administration’s policy vis-à-vis Iran in a forceful speech that included a detailed description of the crimes of the Islamic Republic. The policy reflects the tension between the desire to undermine what Iran achieved from the nuclear agreement and its ongoing conduct in relation to all issues not covered by the agreement, and international and regional constraints. Regarding the nuclear agreement, the...
On October 13, 2017, President Trump announced his decision not to certify the JCPOA, in contrast to his previous two decisions to certify the deal. Perhaps the most notable feature of the new policy is that it covers the entirety of Iran’s behavior that is viewed negatively by the US, beyond the nuclear program. In so doing, the administration has ended the approach of the Obama administration that sought to create a divide between the nuclear and regional manifestations of Iran’s conduct, claiming that the nuclear deal “was...
Now is not the time to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran. Rather, suitable strategic conditions should be created if a withdrawal is necessary in the future, with leverage built for a better option. Postponing a decision regarding the future of the JCPOA does not denote passivity toward Iran. Alongside efforts to set up an international coalition that will work to keep Iran from nuclear weapons, action must be taken against all negative Iranian activities that are not covered by the agreement. At the same time, the United...
After years of disagreement between Iran and Turkey, particularly regarding the war in Syria, there are many recent signs of an increase in cooperation between Tehran and Ankara. A range of developments on the ground, including the success of Iran and Russia in ensuring the continuation of the Assad regime; cooperation between the United States and the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State; and concern about the consequences of Kurdish ambitions for independence, as well as Turkey’s decision to send armed forces to Syria...
Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with President Trump in New York in late September. With the events in the Korean peninsula in the background, the two leaders will almost certainly discuss the lessons for preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Indeed, the parallel between the challenges posed by North Korea’s nuclear program and the Iranian nuclear program is clear, and in this context, an ongoing, intimate dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington is necessary. Israel and the United States would do well...
There is a reason for anniversaries – in international politics as in life. They encourage us to assess where we are and where we are going. The two-year anniversary of the Iran nuclear deal (otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) coincided with the six-month mark of the Trump administration. This provides an opportune moment to take stock and offer advice about how to proceed with regard to the nuclear deal, especially as the administration nears completion of its Iran policy review.
The central issue discussed in the August 23, 2017 meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin was the growing Iranian involvement in Syria and the role that Russia is assigning to Iran in shaping the future political arrangement in the war-torn state. Israel’s struggle against Iran’s growing influence in Syria will be determined by the ability of both Iran and Israel to exercise effective levers of influence on Russia. Russia for its part will try to maneuver between Israeli demands and the need for...
The question of Syria’s future, especially the issue of Iran’s influence and presence in the country, was at the center of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Putin. On the table are a range of possible scenarios of Iranian levels of intervention for which Israel is preparing, against an array of strategic considerations that will influence Iran’s policy. The Iranian threat from Syria does not pose an intolerable security challenge for Israel right now and probably will not in the future, especially if...
Senior officials within the Iranian regime have long been convinced that American administrations have striven to infiltrate Iran’s internal system and topple the Islamic regime, and this impression has been bolstered of late. For its part, even if the Trump administration has not presented a defined position on regime change in Iran, it undoubtedly has a clear interest in this regard. Yet the US administration has no concrete ability to bring about regime change in Iran in the desired direction – not by supporting internal...
