The United States is currently reviewing its policy on Iran. The administration has allowed the continued suspension of sanctions, after notifying Congress, as required by law, that Iran is complying with the JCPOA. At the same time, its public criticism of Iran’s activities in the Middle East has become harsher, with the goal of sharpening the link between the nuclear agreement and Iran’s regional activity. However, while the administration can choose from several ways of restricting Iran’s moves in the Middle East, it...
The first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have been marked by tension between continued sharp and divisive rhetoric against political rivals at home and against “the media” on the one hand, and relative moderation and caution (along with moves showing determination and strength) in the conduct of foreign policy on the other. At the strategic level, the shapers of Trump’s administration will lead the President to persevere, as far as possible, with the strategy of “measured steps” in his...
The United States missile attack in Syria, which is likely to restore the US image of a world power with determination and deterrence, has aroused opposition among the very forces that supported Donald Trump in his presidential campaign – supporters of Britain’s exit from the European Union, politicians from the nationalist right wing in Europe, and Russia. The attack was welcomed, however, by most European countries – the natural allies of the United States. Therefore, the measure is likely to strengthen, albeit indirectly, the...
When looking at the Trump administration through the prism of the stages of starting a new job, we should remember that the new President, as well as most of the people appointed to support him in the execution of his task, are inexperienced in the management of the systems and the people under their responsibility. In other words, if we rush to examine the Trump administration during its first few months in order to assess its future actions – against the background of orders banning the entry of Muslims from some countries defined...
For Israel’s right wing Israeli government, the Trump administration is easier to work with than the Obama administration, both with regard to continued limited construction in settlements and the apparent lack of objection to construction in Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. Nevertheless, the way that Netanyahu is handling the contacts with the Trump administration is liable to lead to another missed opportunity to solidify, together with the United States, the idea that in any solution, the settlement blocs close to the Green...
On the night of April 6-7, 2017, the United States launched dozens of cruise missiles from destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea and struck the Syrian air force base in Dardaghan-Shuayrat. Only 70 hours earlier, the Assad regime had launched bombers from this airfield to execute a chemical weapons attack against civilians. The significance of this focused and isolated attack by the United States lies not in its physical impact, which was deliberately limited in scope, but rather in its serving as a platform to carry the strategic...
When the Netanyahu government replaced the Olmert government and Barack Obama assumed the United States presidency, the Palestinians adopted an “internationalization strategy.” This choice reflected the Palestinian skepticism about the possibility of bridging the gaps with Israel and the hope that the international community would accept their tripartite demand: (1) establishment of a Palestinian state (2) on the basis of the 1967 borders (3) with East Jerusalem as its capital. The consolidation of the new administration in the...
In the brief period that the Trump administration has been in office, US policy on Iran signals a change from recent years. There is an emphasis on adopting a tough line, at least rhetorically, probably in an attempt to make the Iranians understand that in contrast to the Obama presidency, the Trump administration does not intend to ignore Tehran’s provocative measures. Change in the US rules of the game against Iran – achieving success in reining in Iran’s regional influence without being dragged into a conflict, and without Iran...
For many of the Sunni regimes in the Middle East, the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency is a positive development, if only because it marks the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. Obama’s policy was seen as damaging and, in certain cases, treacherous towards those considered traditional American allies. The Gulf states in particular are encouraged by the more assertive tone towards Iran sounded by Trump and Defense Secretary James Mattis, who see Iran as the main source of instability in the region. However, Trump’s...
There are growing indications that efforts to reduce the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are underway. The most recent one was the arrival of the Kuwaiti foreign minister in Tehran on January 25, 2017 for a meeting with the Iranian president. The foreign minister brought with him a letter expressing the willingness of the Arab Gulf states to begin a “strategic dialogue” with Iran. Although complete details of the initiative were not disclosed, it included an invitation to begin negotiations based on good neighborly relations,...
The Trump administration has commenced with a tempest of policy implementation of promises made during the election campaign in areas of policy such as immigration, trade, health care, the Supreme Court, and many others. They mostly related to domestic policy and the American economy. Regarding the Middle East, the administration has adopted a different style of rhetoric from that of the previous administration. Nevertheless, there is no strong evidence for a new regional policy: whether in relation to Iran and the nuclear deal, the...
During the American election campaign, one of the promises that President Trump made was to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In principle, Israel cannot but welcome this important US move, should it be approved. Moving the embassy would strengthen Jerusalem’s status as Israel’s capital in the eyes of the rest of the world, and therefore it would be wrong of Israel to oppose it, apart from any political context and/or considerations of timing. Furthermore, it is important to understand that this is an internal US...
