The war in Syria that began seven years ago is now on the brink of a new stage, as reflected in recent weeks by incidents on the various fronts. Inevitably, the complex fabric of interests among the many elements involved has resulted in conflicts and has renewed the sense of “all versus all.” During the events between Israel, Syria, and Iran on February 10, 2018, Russia worked to stop the escalation from becoming a violent round of fighting. The United States seemed at once present but absent; its voice was not heard...
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.
There are two possible explanations for the events on Israel’s northern border that began before dawn on February 10, 2018 with the downing of an Iranian drone that penetrated Israeli airspace. One is Iran’s desire to conduct a covert move to examine its intelligence capability, The second explanation is that Iran initiated a deliberate provocation in order to redefine the rules of the game in Syria against Israel. The Israeli response was extensive and included attacks on Syrian and Iranian targets, and Israel must prepare for...
Israel’s current strategic situation is one of the most favorable the country has known in its 70 years of existence. Nonetheless, its margins of security are narrow, and it cannot rest on its laurels or rely on the IDF’s military power. There must be political action to promote the future of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral state. Israel’s national security challenges are closely interrelated: to confront Iran’s ambitions to increase its regional influence, Israel must build partnerships with regional...
In the course of 2017, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a research study to examine the situation in the Gaza Strip, with a focus on the prevailing political, economic, infrastructural, and security conditions, including their cumulative manifestations and their short term and long term implications. The aim of the project was to provide a knowledge base for reevaluation of Israeli policy toward the region and for an international reconstruction project. Underlying this aim is the understanding that the...
The foreign policy of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman – is not a good example of consistent cooperation and unity, and policy on Hamas and the Gaza Strip is no exception. In the first few years of the Arab Awakening, differences between each of the participating Gulf states grew increasingly apparent, including over the issue of support for political Islamic movements. Indeed, the focus of most Gulf states has been on internal problems, regional...
For many years Iran has enjoyed close relations with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip. For years this backing has taken primarily the form of military aid – weaponry and know-how for self-manufacturing and the training of personnel. This was complemented by financial assistance (hundreds of millions of dollars annually) and political backing in public events, in order to place the Palestinian issue on the global agenda.
During the recent waves of protests in Iran, much criticism was voiced against the country’s involvement in regional conflicts, particularly given the difficult economic situation within Iran itself. The expectations of the Iranian public for economic benefit rose following the lifting of sanctions on oil production and the banking system two years ago. However, considerable improvements at the macro level have yet to trickle down to the micro level (the economic situation in the street), and the adjustment will in any case be...
On January 12, 2018 US President Donald Trump, for the third time, waived the sanctions on Iran that were lifted in the framework of the JCPOA. The announcement on the decision stressed that over the coming four months, the administration will work with Congress and the JCPOA’s European signatories to “fix” the problems with the agreement. Trump warned that unless agreements are reached within this period of time, the United States will withdraw from the deal. There are therefore two main possibilities: A US-European agreement to...
Abstract by Amos Yadlin
In the coming days President Trump is due to decide whether to continue the suspension of sanctions on Iran or reinstate them. Reinstatement of the sanctions would be tantamount to a withdrawal from the nuclear agreement reached in 2015 between Iran and the world powers. In advance of the President’s decision, INSS held a simulation and extensive deliberations on the issue. INSS researchers, who are leading experts in the field, recommend strongly that the United States not withdraw from the nuclear agreement...
Abstract by Amos Yadlin
In the coming days President Trump is due to decide whether to continue the suspension of sanctions on Iran or reinstate them. Reinstatement of the sanctions would be tantamount to a withdrawal from the nuclear agreement reached in 2015 between Iran and the world powers. In advance of the President’s decision, INSS held a simulation and extensive deliberations on the issue. INSS researchers, who are leading experts in the field, recommend strongly that the United States not withdraw from the nuclear agreement...
Iran is experiencing the most significant wave of protests since the riots that erupted following the 2009 presidential election. Unlike the events of 2009, which were led by leaders of the reform movement and were primarily political in nature, the current protests have no recognized leadership and combine a demand for improvement in the economic situation with a demand for greater political and social freedoms. Moreover, they are not limited to Tehran, and occur in parallel in a large number of cities throughout the country. Thus...
