Publications

More than two months after the outbreak of Operation “Roaring Lion,” the Islamic Republic stands with significant vulnerabilities and a new leadership, yet it also has certain achievements to its credit. These include surviving a joint American-Israeli attack and exploiting levers of pressure created during the fighting, including attacks against the Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While it is premature to assess the full implications of the war, the conclusion of which remains uncertain, prominent trajectories can already be identified across six key domains: the Iranian domestic arena; the nuclear program; the missile array; the regional proxy network; Iran’s standing in the regional order; and Iran’s position in the global arena. Insights in these contexts are intended to serve as a foundation for analyzing subsequent developments in the coming months, once the “dust of war” settles and its long-term implications become evident. At present, the current status quo (“neither war nor peace”), characterized by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz alongside an American naval blockade, remains unstable. It is doubtful whether such a state can be sustained over time. For Israel, this reality implies that Iran continues to maintain its nuclear capabilities while rehabilitating its missile array. This increases the risk of a “breakout” toward nuclear weapons and the resumption of hostilities under more difficult conditions. Against this backdrop, Israel faces a fundamental question: Should it continue to strive for a resolution to the Iranian problem through a decisive victory—the achievability of which is highly questionable, particularly without active U.S. participation? Or should it adopt a policy of “conflict management” through intermittent enforcement, until a political shift occurs within Iran?

Blockade, agreement, or escalation: Where is the US–Iran negotiation crisis headed?

Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project. The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine that relies on nuclear weapons as its sole existential deterrent capability. Under these circumstances, it is essential to ensure that Iran retains no nuclear capability that could serve as a foundation for a military nuclear program. This paper argues that previous models of “risk management” (such as the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) are no longer relevant. Therefore, Israel must insist on the complete dismantling of Iran’s uranium enrichment infrastructure and relevant technological capabilities as a necessary condition for ending the war, whether by diplomatic or military means.