Supported by the US-led coalition, Iraqi security forces are on the verge of liberating the city of Mosul from the Islamic State. Like the future conquest of Raqqa in Syria, the conquest of Mosul will make a significant contribution to the international effort to defeat the Islamic State. Still, the internal and regional clashes that have plagued Iraq over the past two decades and enabled the phenomenon of the Islamic State remain strong, and the trends of division and instability will presumably continue. Despite the rifts among...
The outbreak of war in July 2006 was as surprising for the United States as it was for Israel. In addition to the significance for Israel, the results were important for the Bush administration, as they changed the American view of the Israeli-Palestinian situation and destroyed the relationship between Prime Minister Olmert and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The Second Lebanon War broke out on July 12, 2006, without either Israel or Hezbollah intending this escalation. However, the abduction of IDF soldiers that day by a Hezbollah cell created a new reality in the north that prompted Israel to embark on a military operation, which ultimately became a war. The course of the war and its outcomes strongly affected subsequent internal and external Israeli, Lebanese, and regional processes. Hindsight provides an opportunity to examine the war and its ramifications from a broader and more...
The current race for control of territory in Syria now appears to be a competition between Iran and the United States, which have established two respective axes – with a vertical American (north-south) effort on the one hand, and a horizontal Iranian (east-west) effort on the other hand. In practice, this is another stage in the shaping of Syria in preparation for the day after the Islamic State. In the meantime, the country’s southwestern region, from Daraa to the Golan Heights, remains open for activity and influence by Israel and...
Are the recent US strikes against the Islamic State, as well Russia’s permissive policy on airstrikes in Syria that cause mass civilian casualties and extensive harm to civilian infrastructures, evidence of a change in international standards in the fight against terrorist organizations and sub-state actors? A related question is: do the rules of engagement that apply to powers such as the United States and Russia also apply to other states confronting terrorism, such as Israel? How should Israel prepare for its next confrontation...
Israel, the United States, and the Struggle over the Settlement Construction Freeze, 2009-2010 sketches the long and winding road President Barack Obama took during his first two years in office to bring about an Israel-Palestinian agreement. Based on a wide range of sources and the testimony of senior members of the US administration and the Israeli government, the book describes how US-Israel relations deteriorated to the verge of a severe crisis. The author analyzes the reasons and constraints that kept an agreement from being...
President Trump’s statements during his recent visit to the Middle East reflect a profound commitment to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. To this end, President Trump is demonstrating his desire to avoid the mistakes of the preceding administration, which was not successful in advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Nevertheless, despite the different “spirit” that President Trump brings with him regarding the peace process, it is difficult to understand the basis of his firm belief in his ability to “close...
The recent dispute between Qatar and some of its neighbors is the most serious dispute among them in years, and has the potential to further destabilize an already turbulent region. But the crisis also presents a potential opportunity. If a united front that includes the United States and the leading countries in the Arab world can induce Qatar to contain its support for organizations that promote extremism and threaten regional order, it could help stabilize the region, limit the reach of the Islamic State, and isolate Iran. The...
President Trump’s visit to Riyadh was noteworthy for the grand reception his Saudi hosts prepared for him and for the announcement that the two nations will advance a long list of bilateral military and economic agreements. The Arab Islamic Summit organized by the Saudis was intended to demonstrate their status in the Muslim and Arab worlds. It would likewise enable Trump to demonstrate his success in establishing a united front in the struggle against the Islamic State and Iran, along with his intention to base United States...
President Trump’s first trip outside the United States eclipses – to a degree – the attention on events underway in the American domestic arena. The royal welcome the President received in Saudi Arabia and his meetings with a long list of Arab and Muslim leaders provide him with numerous accomplishments: the image of the authoritative leader of a superpower; the demonstration of a united front against Iran and the Islamic State; and success in fulfilling his promise to improve the American economy. Trump also intends to try to...
President Trump’s decision to pay his first visit abroad to the Middle East, specifically to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority, underscores one of the most surprising early developments of his presidency: his seeming determination to make progress on advancing negotiations to achieve Israeli-Palestinian (and Arab-Israeli) peace. But this choice raises a tantalizing question: where so many others have failed, could President Trump actually succeed? The road is long and strewn with obstacles. Ultimately, resolving the...
The “Memorandum to Create De-escalation Zones in Syria,” signed in Astana, Kazakhstan on May 5, 2017 by Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantors of implementation, is the fourth attempt within just over a year to bring about a sustainable ceasefire in Syria. New this time is the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syrian territory. The agreement is thus an attempt to shape the future in Syria, including areas where Israel and Jordan have very clear interests, yet thus far without consideration of these interests. As...
