An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
In December 2018, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) published her annual report on the preliminary examinations conducted by her office. The examination of “the situation in Palestine” includes an examination of alleged crimes committed in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, since June 2014, by all the parties involved – Israelis and Palestinians. The current report indicates a number of development. First, events in Gaza examined include alleged crimes committed during the Great...
Scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian Arena: Strategic Challenges and Possible Responses presents the results of research conducted at the Institute for National Security Studies, which examined the security and strategic threats and challenges Israel faces in several possible scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The research focused on the strategic challenges to Israel in each of these scenarios and Israel’s possible responses to them. Most scenarios clearly demonstrate that the existence of a responsible, stable,...
The eighth issue of Over the Net deals at length with the affair that has taken the Arab world and the international arena by storm since October 2018, the murder and disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The man himself, the reasons behind his murder, and the details of the murder have combined to create a fascinating story that caused passionate discussions, first and foremost about Saudi Arabia and its (acting) leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and also about Turkey, the United States, and freedom of the press...
Even if Israel succeeds in arresting further terrorism in the West Bank, recent events underscore that it must adopt a new paradigm that provides a relevant response to greater strategic interests, and not just to immediate concerns each time escalation occurs. Conflict management in the name of an illusory status quo is leading Israel toward a one-state reality, even if there is no official Israeli declaration of support for a one-state solution. To avoid sliding into this reality, a “strategic road map” is proposed, based on four...
In the most recent escalation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the message conveyed by both parties was that they are not interested in paying the price of a war that will ultimately return them to square one. At the same time, neither wants to allow the other to score success or to appear as if it is conducting negotiations with the enemy. Thus, in the Palestinian arena, Israel should give priority to its long term interests at the expense of its short term interests that focus on achieving calm in the area. It is...
The Soldiers’ Talk and the Movement for Greater Israel were both born during the period following the Six Day War. Even when examined in their early stages of development, both illustrate the different viewpoints of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that have existed from then until today. In order to support this claim, this essay compares the characteristics of the discourse represented by these two opposing pillars, which originated during the shock of the 1967 victory. This is done by analyzing texts that appeared immediately...
