Recent decisions by the United States Senate concerning the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the future of American involvement in the war in Yemen reflect the large gap between the Trump administration and many lawmakers regarding relations with Saudi Arabia. It appears that despite President Trump’s desire to put the Khashoggi affair behind him, the last word has not yet been said. The pressures on the administration are not intended to bring the historical relations with Saudi Arabia to an end, but rather to...
For the United States, which still has interests in the Middle East, a hasty withdrawal of forces from Syria weakens its influence on processes in the region and limits its room to maneuver in the face of existing challenges. The US administration leaves its allies with question marks regarding US ability to back their policies, and at the same time, heightens Iran’s motivation to strengthen its grip and influence in the area. Israel remains alone in its campaign against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and at most will receive...
A planned meeting between the United States and Russian Presidents on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires was canceled at the last minute by President Donald Trump, ostensibly in response to Russian aggression toward Ukraine in the Azov Sea, close to the Crimean peninsula. Cancellation of the meeting highlighted a new low point in the ongoing crisis of relations between the US and Russia. In the days following the cancellation, a positive change was evident in Russia’s tone regarding Israel, and it is not impossible that...
The Six Day War, which broke out on the morning of June 5, 1967, was a formative event that changed the face of the State of Israel and, to a large extent, the entire Middle East. Prior to the war, Israel had been under existential threat and in six days, the Israel Defense Forces succeeded in removing the threat by achieving a decisive military victory and positioning Israel as a significant force in the region. This victory was accompanied by new complexities, and fifty years after the war, some of its implications still remain as...
The Six Day War dramatically transformed the State of Israel’s strategic position in the Middle East. From a small country just able to protect itself and maintain its existence despite the dangers from all its neighbors—who enjoyed Soviet support and petroleum wealth—Israel became a regional superpower with undeniable military superiority. The war made it clear to the Arab world, although not always explicitly, that it was not capable of destroying the State of Israel. Even the difficulties Israel encountered in the Yom Kippur War...
The results of the Six Day War substantially changed Israel’s strategic situation. Prior to the war, Israel was a small democracy with Western values. The Israeli economy was in a recession due to the ideological positions of its socialist leadership, which was slow to adapt a modern economy to the rapid growth in the private sector. The country identified as part of the Western world, and its hostile Arab neighbors had not accepted its existence as a Jewish state in the heart of the Arab-Muslim region. Israel was secular in...
President Trump has announced his intent to terminate the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, a major US-Soviet arms control treaty that eliminated an entire category of nuclear weapons in the final years of the Cold War. The expected withdrawal comes in light of ongoing US accusations of Russian violations of the treaty, first by testing and later (allegedly) deploying a limited number of missiles prohibited by the treaty. Expert opinion in the US on the expected pullout is split, as the move would have a...
The Trump administration is reportedly working to create a joint Arab military force. This force, which the administration refers to as the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), has already been dubbed an Arab NATO. From the perspective of the United States, a regional Arab coalition could reduce or prevent the need for the deployment of American troops in the Middle East, as such an alliance could, in principle, fight Iranian subversion and support for terrorism, as well as take action to curb Iranian weapons smuggling to Iranian...
The Democratic Party’s success in regaining control of the House of Representatives is a sign of the American public’s attitude toward the leadership of President Donald Trump. On the eve of the elections, the President himself stated explicitly that the results would constitute a referendum on his policy. In the American domestic arena, most legislative processes are likely to be paralyzed following the elections, but no conclusions about the 2020 presidential elections should be drawn. However, the results will require...
The Khashoggi affair, which is far from over, poses the most significant challenge to US-Saudi relations since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. Thus far, the administration’s response reflects uncertainty and ambivalence, given its understanding that Riyadh’s conduct demands a response, versus its hope that it will not be forced to acknowledge the failure of its Middle East policy, which assigns Saudi Arabia a critical role, particularly in the efforts to contain Iran. The recent events have intensified the internal...
The release of Pastor Andrew Brunson from prison in Turkey is not a magical cure for the severe crisis that has characterized US-Turkish relations for over a year. At the same time, it attests to the fact that Turkey can be pressured, and it points to Ankara’s weak points – first and foremost, in the economic realm. Brunson’s arrest was only one of a large number of bones of contention between the United States and Turkey, and similar to the release of Brunson, possible means of bridging the gaps on other specific issues can also be...
The US administration blamed Iran for the September 2018 rocket attacks against the US consulate building in Basra, Iraq, claiming they were carried out by Shiite militia forces. The administration announced the transfer of its diplomatic staff to the embassy in Baghdad, and senior US officials have threatened that Iran will pay a heavy price if it strikes American targets. Although the US statements relate to Iran’s overall activity in the Middle East, they seem to place special emphasis on Iraq’s potential to become more of a...
