The tension between Iran and the United States, which increased following the targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani and the subsequent Iranian response, has reached a level of intensity that has not been seen in years. The conduct of both leaderships following the events attests to the fact that they have no interest in an all-encompassing confrontation with one another. Still, Iran will likely resume an asymmetrical struggle aimed at removing the US presence from the Middle East, and especially from Iraq. Therefore, even if thus far...
The Power Gap
As it enters a new decade, the State of Israel possesses impressive military, political, technological, and economic power. However, Israel is hard-pressed to translate these advantages into strategic influence and achieve its key national security objectives: mitigating threats, advancing peace, building alliances, and dictating the terms for the satisfactory conclusion of conflicts. This reality results from the limited benefit that military action can provide Israel against its main adversaries, as well as Israel’s...
On February 21, 2020, Iran will hold elections for the Majlis (parliament). The elections, scheduled to take place only three months after the gasoline riots were waged across Iran in November 2019, are a significant test of strength for the two main political camps (the conservative right, and the pragmatic reformists), particularly prior to the presidential elections that are expected in the summer of 2021. The relative apathy of the reformist camp and a low voter turnout in view of the increasing frustration among the public may...
The ongoing popular protests in Iraq reflect the public’s rejection of the highly corrupt political system that is unable to advance changes and reforms, as well as Iran’s profound involvement in Iraqi affairs. Iraq’s political system and Iran’s leadership are well aware that the protests are a very significant threat to Iraq’s internal stability. Nonetheless, at this stage, neither side seems willing to adopt any of the protesters’ demands that threaten both the future of the Iraqi political elite and Iraqi assets acquired by Iran,...
In May 2019, Iran indicated that it would begin to violate the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This would take the form of a series of incremental and escalatory steps, to be announced every 60 days, in response to the withdrawal of the Trump administration from the nuclear deal a year earlier and the subsequent imposition of harsh sanctions. The fourth step, taken in November 2019, is the most serious so far: Iran announced that it would begin enriching uranium at the heavily fortified underground enrichment...
Protests have been underway across Iran since November 15, 2019 in the wake of the government’s decision to increase gasoline prices sharply and ration gasoline consumption. These moves reflect the intensity of the economic crisis facing Iran following the re-imposition of sanctions. The government, which had previously backtracked on its intention to implement economic austerity measures out of fear they would lead to a resumption of popular protests, found itself having to take a calculated risk in an attempt to boost its...
Against the backdrop of its military involvement in Syria, Iran has taken a series of steps since 2014 to reinforce its standing in Syria and Lebanon and enhance its military preparedness there, as well as that of its proxies – first and foremost Hezbollah. These steps are of two types. One consists of steps designed to influence Syria’s internal situation and bind it to Iran for the long term, including economic agreements on reconstruction, resettlement of Shiites in Syria, introduction of Iranian religious and cultural values into...
Recent signs point to a mutual effort by Iran and Saudi Arabia to clear the air and ease tensions, and suggest a willingness to address disputes through dialogue. New contacts between these countries come against the backdrop of the September 14, 2019 attack on the kingdom’s main oil facilities, which was attributed to Iran and temporarily shut down approximately half of Saudi oil output. Iran demonstrated that even if it would not like to see a sweeping deterioration in regional stability, it is prepared to take greater risks,...
This collection represents a collaborative effort by the Institute for the Research of the Methodology of Intelligence (IRMI) at the Israeli Intelligence Community Commemoration and Heritage Center and the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). It includes articles on the challenges of the cognitive campaign in the era of modern communications from a variety of perspectives. As such, it is a significant contribution to the public discussion of cognition and to the development of a professional knowledge base among the...
The September 14 attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia – including Abqaiq, which is considered the largest of its kind in the world – is the most serious kinetic attack on oil facilities in the Gulf since the 1991 Gulf War, in terms of damage and economic significance. This incident goes far beyond the bounds of the war in Yemen, particularly if it is proven beyond any doubt that the attack was launched from Iranian territory. Under these circumstances, it is evident that even if Iran is not interested in a broad...
The Iranian regime is waging a campaign on the diplomatic, economic, and nuclear fronts as it confronts the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy. The Iranian policy, dubbed “maximum resistance” by the regime, centers on the refusal to meet Trump and resume negotiations before the sanctions imposed on Tehran by Washington are lifted. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif is conducting a series of political visits to many countries in defiance of the sanctions imposed on him by Washington. In...
