The war between Russia and Ukraine has seen extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including many unmanned aircraft produced by Iran. As the war enters its second year, it offers Israel a good opportunity to study enemy technologies and prepare accordingly, not via forecasts or wargames but through actual – and alarming – occurrences. The use of UAVs by non-Western parties as an alternative to an air force, along with the lethal attacks on civilians in Ukraine and the extensive collateral damage caused by UAVs, is highly...
Current Situation – Great power competition · Struggle over world order · Technology core issue · Potential escalation (Ukraine, Taiwan) · Less collaboration · Middle East lower priority | Current Israeli Strategy – “Between the raindrops” maneuver · Rely on the US while advancing relations with other powers | Recommended Strategy – Alternative 2: Strengthen the US strategic mainstay · Stand by the US as a member of the Western camp · Pursue differential foreign policy, adjusted to era of great power competition
The current war in Ukraine is followed closely by many people throughout the world. The fog of war typical of past wars is strikingly absent this time, thanks to the enormous quantity of open-source information from the battlefield streaming over the internet in real time. Although the war is far from over, at this stage it is already possible to see how the use of open-source intelligence (OSINT), based on commercial capabilities, knowledge-sharing communities on social media, and artificial intelligence tools developed in the...
The fighting in Ukraine presents an opportunity for many countries, including Israel, to draw military-related lessons. Inter alia, the Russian attack in October 2022 using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones should be an important lesson for the IDF and decision makers in Israel. Over the past decade, drones, including various kinds of attack drones, have turned from exclusive weapons in the hands of very few countries to widespread weapons that are also in the hands of failed and rogue states and non-state organizations. In view of...
President Putin’s decision to annex four regions of Ukraine and his definition of his struggle against the Western elites as an existential struggle, while avowing his determination to defend the annexed territories and making implicit threats about the possibility of using unconventional weapons, significantly increase the risk of escalation. Consequently, the United States and its allies are now at a crossroads. It seems that Russia’s conduct will compel them to formulate a follow-up strategy that will heighten the...
Before the war, the Russian economy was projected to grow by 10.3% between 2020 and 2023. Following the outbreak of the warfare, the IMF projected that the Russian economy will contract in this period by 6.3%, yet recently the projected contraction was moderated to 5%.
The West’s goal in the campaign in Ukraine is still the prevention of a Russian victory and the guarantee that Ukraine does not lose. To this end, the United States administration is leading an international effort to upgrade substantially the quality and speed of heavy arms transfers to Ukraine. At the same time, it is clear to the West that despite Russia’s failure so far to achieve its original goals in the war, President Putin does not intend to retreat. It is therefore likely that the US administration and European...
The Russia-Ukraine War, underway for two months, continues in full force. Negotiations between the countries, held until about two weeks ago, achieved certain agreements. However, Russia announced the second stage of the invasion, which began on April 19, and it seems that the negotiations will not be renewed in the coming weeks. This raises the question of how the campaign will continue and what might influence its end and its results. At this stage it seems that the end of the war will be determined in the coming weeks in...
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Karim Khan, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, has begun advancing the investigation of Russian military operations in the context of two proceedings: Russia’s confrontation with Georgia (2008) and the confrontation with Ukraine (since 2014). These proceedings may indicate the policy that Khan seeks to promote – positioning the Court as a central and influential element in real-time confrontations; expanding its attention beyond Third World countries and the African...
Russia and Ukraine have clearly been willing to give Ankara a significant role to play in talks on how to end the war and to participate in Turkish mediation efforts. The position of mediator has eased Turkey’s situation not only in relation to some of the dilemmas posed by the war, but also in providing an opening for improving its relations with NATO. As tensions escalate, the Turkish dilemma will worsen, as the pressure on Ankara to adopt a consistent line in favor of one side increases. The war in Ukraine is underway in parallel...
One of the key aspects of the war that Russia imposed on Ukraine is the surprising level of steadfastness among the Ukrainian civilian front, which prevents Russia from realizing its military advantage and determining the outcome of the war. The civilian home front in Ukraine was rebuilt after Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, and it functions remarkably well based on the general mobilizing of recruits and volunteering of civilians for a variety of national and local missions, including combat, in the territorial...
Less than two weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The display of unity left an impression in the West of the emergence of a new axis facing the United States. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine put China in a problematic position, in which the West considers it a partner in an “axis of evil,” or at least responsible for the continuation of this axis. This article examines the possible lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war...
