Since the 1980s, we have witnessed rapid changes in a world characterized by a neo-liberal economy, increased human migration, and information technologies developing at an unprecedented pace. These transformations are putting stress on modern state structures and have allowed non-state players to enter the heart of global consciousness. These new entities pose new security challenges, including ethnic conflicts, civil wars, the use of robotics-based autonomous weapons, and terrorist attacks both in the physical sphere and...
The revolution of January 25, 2011 in Egypt, which constituted one of the many upheavals of the Arab Spring, resulted in a regime change but also challenged Egypt’s stateness; that is, the state’s monopoly on the use of force, the administrative effectiveness of its bureaucracy, and civil consensus in defining both its collective and state identity. This challenge led to another regime change in the summer of 2013 and the restoration of an authoritarian regime after a year of trying to transition to democracy, dealing Egypt’s...
This article seeks to bridge between sociological approaches and security studies in order to analyze how the characteristics of the current era—defined by sociologists as “late modernity”—construct the definition of the term “national security.” The premise of this article is that the concept of national security is steeped in classical modernity; it is an inseparable part of the world order of nation-states; and it is based on the scientific and technological thinking that underpins national security decision making. Yet, since the...
With the apparent defeat of the Islamic State (ISIS), the approaching end to the civil war in Syria, and sovereignty returning to Iraq, the Middle East has appeared to settle into a relative, if tense, calm. Across North Africa, however, where the upheavals began eight years ago, recent weeks have witnessed a growing unrest reminiscent of the Arab Spring’s early days. Though ostensibly unrelated, the removal of longtime autocrats in Algeria and Sudan, and an emerging strongman’s bid for hegemony in Libya, collectively point to...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Until the outbreak of widespread protests in Algeria three weeks ago, the states of northwest Africa had appeared to settle into a relative stasis, despite the fact that the region’s endemic social, economic, and governance-related problems remained very much unresolved. The eruption of demonstrations across Algeria, the largest country in Africa, suggests that frustrated publics in the region may no longer feel deterred from mobilizing. For Israel, the prospect of instability across North Africa suggests that policymakers in...
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
The Trump administration is reportedly working to create a joint Arab military force. This force, which the administration refers to as the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), has already been dubbed an Arab NATO. From the perspective of the United States, a regional Arab coalition could reduce or prevent the need for the deployment of American troops in the Middle East, as such an alliance could, in principle, fight Iranian subversion and support for terrorism, as well as take action to curb Iranian weapons smuggling to Iranian...
In the May 6, 2018 elections in Lebanon, the Shia bloc led by Hezbollah succeeded in increasing its power in the parliament at the expense of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s party. Nevertheless, due to the country’s electoral system, the political status quo achieved in December 2016 will likely be maintained. The process of forming the government will once again reignite the power battle between Hezbollah and Iran on the one hand and al-Hariri and his supporters in Saudi Arabia and in the international community, mainly France and...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
2017 was marked by increased Saudi-Iranian hostility, on both the bilateral level and the regional level, and by the strategic balance tilting further in Iran’s favor, intensifying the trend that emerged in the previous year. The new variable of 2017 – the entry of President Donald Trump into the White House – heightened the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and cast a potential shadow over Iran’s room to maneuver. On the one hand, the Trump administration poses a threat to Iran, by casting it as the main cause of regional...
The instability that has defined the Arab world in recent years continues. Arab regimes lack the motivation and/or the ability to deal with the fundamental problems that feed the actual or potential unrest, and above all the socioeconomic situation. Joining the internal shocks are rifts and tensions between regional players, particularly between the Shiite camp led by Iran, and the Sunni camp led by Saudi Arabia, which is also at war with itself. However, state frameworks have survived and previous assessments regarding the...
