What will the world look like one year from now, and how will the corona pandemic affect the Middle East? This article presents four possible scenarios: “continuation,” in which following a temporary interruption of a few months, there is a resumption of familiar global and regional trends from the pre-corona era; “revolution,” in which there is a fundamental change in the patterns that characterized life before the crisis and the world prepares for a new illiberal world order led by China; “breakdown,” in which all global actors...
As the only contender remaining in the primary race, former Vice President Joe Biden is the presumed Democratic nominee for United States president in 2020. Biden will likely seek to maintain his centrist voter base while also recruiting supporters from the younger, activist wing of the Democratic Party by making concessions in domestic policy rather than foreign policy. Biden is a longstanding supporter of Israel, but should he emerge victorious in November there might be tension with the government of Israel on two key issues: the...
A war game simulating a large scale outbreak of the coronavirus in the Gaza Strip underscored that Israel has no way to prevent a spread of the pandemic in Gaza, but it can take steps to alleviate the situation. Among the principal proposals: Israel should already transfer vital medical aid to the Gaza Strip; work with the World Health Organization and other relief agencies to mobilize medical resources for the area; avoid obstructing any initiative to establish an emergency government by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; and...
The Palestinian arena was already in a weakened state and at a political, economic, and national crossroads in both the West Bank, under the Palestinian Authority, and the Gaza Strip, under Hamas rule, when the corona pandemic hit. The situation in the West Bank is better than in Gaza, which in part reflects a significant gap in the capabilities of the respective leaderships to confront the crisis. While the Palestinian Authority is striving to prove its ability to deal with the crisis, there is serious concern in the Gaza Strip that...
On March 31, 2020, a war game was held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) simulating a cabinet session about the coronavirus crisis, attended by cabinet ministers, advisers, and experts (played by INSS researchers and other participants with relevant expertise). The war game, led by Brig. Gen. (ret.) Itai Brun and conducted through Zoom, considered Israeli policy on the coronavirus crisis and, in particular, strategic options for exiting the lockdown after Passover. The war game was part of the Institute’s...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
Over recent months both Israel and the Palestinians have recorded significant strategic achievements in the prolonged struggle between them. The leaders of both sides told their nations that these victories moved them closer to their desired aim – a resolution to the conflict that fulfills their national desires. However, a critical examination of these achievements raises doubts about the extent to which they actually advance the stated aims of the two sides. The Israeli demand to implement immediately some portions of the Trump...
“The Deal of the Century,” formulated by the Trump administration, is presented as a new paradigm for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that also shapes the architecture of a new Middle East. The plan recognizes Israel’s extensive security requirements and enables Israel to apply its sovereignty on the settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley, and the isolated settlements; avoids uprooting and evacuating Jewish settlers; and preserves a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. For the Palestinian side, the plan outlines...
The deal of the century has confronted the Palestinians at one of the weakest moments in their history. Their ability to unify forces in order to cope with the challenges that the deal poses is limited due to the gaps between the positions of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas and because of the criticism and lack of confidence shown by the public toward to the two leaderships. Abu Mazen continues to rely on the support of the international community and has made it clear that he does not intend to abandon the path of nonviolent...
The INSS 13th Annual International Conference (January 28-30, 2020) hosted senior political and military figures, experts, and decision makers from Israeli and abroad. Discussions centered on four areas: the international power system; the regional environment; Israel’s political and security challenges; and Israel’s internal arena – all with a view toward the coming decade. Particular attention was paid to “the deal of the century,” Iran after Soleimani, and Israel’s northern front. This article presents the main insights from...
“If the Israelis and the Palestinians want one state, that’s okay with me. If they want two states, that’s okay with me. I’m the broker,” said United States President Donald Trump in September 2018. And indeed, the indecision is over: the Trump administration has officially endorsed the two-state solution, to be achieved through “the deal of the century.” The President thus continues the policy of all his predecessors in the White House over the last five decades, based principally on UN Security Council Resolutions...
