The peace agreement signed by the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020 in Doha, Qatar is intended to end the nearly two-decade war between the Taliban and US-led forces in Afghanistan. In the broader strategic picture, the failure of the US to achieve a decisive victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan in the course of 19 years of fighting highlights the limitations of military power. Iran in particular could seemingly benefit from the US withdrawal (notwithstanding possible cross-border destabilizing ramifications), as...
Idlib province in northwest Syria remains the last significant stronghold of the rebellion against the Assad regime. The campaign that was revived recently in this area is marked by traits of the civil war now entering its tenth year: cruel and indiscriminate regime fighting backed by Russia and Iranian-run Shiite militias; a humanitarian crisis, manifested inter alia in displacement and potential refugees; a Russian effort, so far fruitless, to mediate between the sides; a danger of the situation deteriorating – militarily and...
The possibility that the northern arena is on the brink of escalation and liable to deteriorate into war was raised on several recent occasions, including: the annual intelligence assessment of the Military Intelligence Directorate that was presented to military reporters; a speech by the Chief of Staff on December 29, 2019 at a conference in Herzliya; and the INSS annual strategic assessment published at the start of 2020. In contrast with these assessments, the war game held as part of the INSS annual international conference in...
Official though not yet final results of the parliamentary elections held in Iran on February 21, 2020 show a landslide victory by the conservative right (200 out of 290 seats, versus under 20 seats won by reformist candidates). This victory was expected in view of the sweeping disqualification by the authorities of most of the reformist candidates. The low voter turnout (slightly over 40 percent) reflects the ongoing erosion of public trust in the political system. Over time this erosion could undermine the legitimacy of the regime,...
The probability of an outbreak of war as a result of deterioration and escalation is not low and also depends on Israel—that is the implication of the annual intelligence assessment of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID). Nevertheless, the MID’s recommendation to the government is to increase IDF attacks against Iranian forces in Syria, in order to exploit the elimination of Soleimani to drive them out of the country. This article analyzes the recommendation and reaches a different conclusion: Israel must not increase its...
The INSS 13th Annual International Conference (January 28-30, 2020) hosted senior political and military figures, experts, and decision makers from Israeli and abroad. Discussions centered on four areas: the international power system; the regional environment; Israel’s political and security challenges; and Israel’s internal arena – all with a view toward the coming decade. Particular attention was paid to “the deal of the century,” Iran after Soleimani, and Israel’s northern front. This article presents the main insights from...
It was Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Iranian Quds Force, who identified and pursued Iran’s opportunity to intensity its hold in Syria. He planned Iran’s military and civilian entrenchment there, and strove to create a Shiite land bridge from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. From this aspect his death leaves a vacuum, at least temporary. In the Israeli view, the targeted killing of Soleimani has created a rare opportunity to exploit the loss of a strategic ally and patron of Bashar al-Assad in order to dismantle Iranian...
Today’s complex and challenging operational environment, in which Israel exercises its military and other capabilities, is the product of a host of intertwined technological, military, social, and political developments. These developments, which have unfolded over the past few decades, include deep global changes in the characteristics of war; geostrategic changes in the Middle East – most of which are outcomes of the regional upheaval and related events (including the dispatch of military forces to the region by world powers);...
2019 was marked by Iranian audacity on the nuclear issue and in regional activity, and over the year the confrontation with the United States intensified. The sanctions that the American administration imposed on Iran after withdrawing from the nuclear deal in May 2018, and especially the cancellation of the waiver on importing oil from Iran in November 2018, have created severe challenges for the Iranian economy. Iran abided by the commitments stipulated in the nuclear agreement for a year, in the hope of dividing Europe from the...
Nine years after the dramatic events of late 2010 and early 2011 (the so-called Arab Spring), the regional upheaval persists and the Middle East continues to be characterized by instability, uncertainty, and volatility. There is broad consensus among researchers and observers that the region is mired in a deep crisis, while undergoing processes with crucial long term implications and engaged in a turbulent contest over its character.
This struggle is unfolding in two realms: first, between four main camps competing over ideas, power,...
At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
The most significant conventional military threat to Israel is posed by the northern arena, specifically, from Iran and those under its patronage: first and foremost, Hezbollah in Lebanon, followed by the Assad regime and militias active in Syria and Iraq under Iranian guidance, and Iranian (and Hezbollah) forces active in the Syrian arena. In addition, Israel must consider how the targeted killing of Soleimani might impact on the northern arena. In recent years, Israel has adopted a “campaign between wars” strategy in order to...
