Hezbollah’s military capabilities, which have been built up over recent decades with the help of Iran, are the leading conventional threat facing Israel. Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the organization’s capabilities have strengthened both quantitatively and qualitatively, and its rocket and missile arsenal has increased more than ten-fold. The common assumption is that neither Israel nor Hezbollah is interested in war and that they are mutually deterred from it. Nonetheless, the risks of escalation have not waned,...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
The military, economic, and political conflict between Iran and the United States is escalating. Following the attacks on bases in Iraq where US forces are stationed and provocative action against US vessels by Iranian gunboats, potential exists for a limited direct conflict, even though neither side wants one. Friction is also increasing regarding the US drive to extend the article in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 on a conventional weapons embargo against Iran, which was passed following the signing of the nuclear agreement...
Iran is not expected to cede its consolidation in Syria, despite its economic difficulties and the danger of extensive popular protest related to the coronavirus pandemic. But it is possible that Iran will be forced to reduce its entrenchment activity in Syria, at least temporarily, mainly for economic reasons. Against this backdrop, the question arises: could Iran try to take advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis to ignite a large scale conflict, especially through a strong response to Israeli air...
What will the world look like one year from now, and how will the corona pandemic affect the Middle East? This article presents four possible scenarios: “continuation,” in which following a temporary interruption of a few months, there is a resumption of familiar global and regional trends from the pre-corona era; “revolution,” in which there is a fundamental change in the patterns that characterized life before the crisis and the world prepares for a new illiberal world order led by China; “breakdown,” in which all global actors...
The outbreak of the coronavirus dealt a harsh blow to the Iranian economy, which had already fallen to a record low point in the wake of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the decline of oil prices. The economic impact of the pandemic is particularly severe because it harms sectors that were less affected by the sanctions. The regime is currently attempting to contain the economic crisis and supply immediate solutions for citizens, primarily in the form of assistance packages for the needy. Tehran is trying to gain...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
Iran is going through one of the most severe depressions it has ever experienced – a function of the corona epidemic, the difficult economic situation due to sanctions, a fall in the price of oil, and a growing lack of trust on the part of the public toward the regime. Tehran is trying to use the pandemic to pressure the United States to lift the sanctions, or at least relax them, but the US administration has made it clear that it does not intend to do so, and in fact, recently imposed new sanctions. At the same time, the...
This essay presents the evolving Iranian cyber activities with the purpose of identifying patterns that presumably form the cyber strategy applied by the regime to external and internal threats. The paper initially describes Iranian cyber operations, based on information released by the Islamic Republic and reports published by cyber security firms. The work then follows with an analysis of Iranian cyber activities. The article draws the characteristics and dynamics of Iran’s cyber activities, both externally and internally,...
The failed attempts by the Iranian authorities to hide information from the public regarding the downing of the Ukrainian airplane by the Revolutionary Guards (January 2020) and the outbreak of the coronavirus (February 2020) have caused further significant damage to Iranian public confidence in Islamic Republic institutions. The erosion of public confidence, already evident in Iran in recent years, was likewise reflected in the unprecedentedly low voter turnout in the parliamentary elections in late February. The intensifying crisis...
A phenomenon that has intensified over the past decade in the Middle East is the use of mercenaries to project power and to realize interests. It seems that the Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia are leaders in this trend, using numerous mercenaries for combat missions beyond their borders. Mercenaries give those who deploy them a tool for managing warfare beyond their own borders, and another means of power projection while reducing their official losses. Israel, which is currently engaged in the struggle against Iranian entrenchment...
