As the US presidential election nears, Iranian interest has risen as to the possible ramifications for the future of the nuclear deal. Recently there have been mounting Iranian calls to lower expectations, contending that there is no substantive difference in the Democratic and Republican positions on Iran, and that the developments since the United States withdrew from the deal might challenge its potential renewal. While these voices can be explained in part as a tactical step designed to improve Tehran’s bargaining position...
The rejection by the Security Council of a US draft resolution to extend the embargo on arms sales to Iran, scheduled to expire on October 18, 2020, is evidence of the administration’s isolation, which is largely a result of the displeasure with its unilateral steps and the deep rift with its traditional allies in Europe. The administration now intends to demand that the Council invoke a clause for a snapback of all sanctions and curbs that were previously imposed on Iran and lifted after the nuclear agreement was reached....
A discussion at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) considered a hypothetical scenario of an Iranian cyberattack on the health systems in Israel and the United States as part of the escalation of recent months between Iran on the one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other hand. Participants disagreed as to the appropriate response. Most participants believed that the response to an Iranian cyberattack should be in the cyber and political realms and not invite broader escalation. Nonetheless, some argued...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
On July 11, 2020, the New York Times published the draft of a 25-year strategic agreement between Iran and China leaked by sources in Tehran, to the dismay of Beijing. According to the draft, China will receive priority in billions of dollars of infrastructure investments in Iran, and a regular supply of oil and gas at a substantial discount, while military cooperation between the two countries will increase. It is believed that Iran has been working on this agreement since Xi Jinping’s 2016 visit to Iran. The Chinese are...
Initial steps taken by the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, indicate that he intends to restrain the elements that weaken and destabilize the country, among them the militias supported by Iran. These measures join other developments challenging the active presence of Iran and its proxies in Iraq: from demonstrations that refuse to die out, and have instead escalated following their violent suppression, to the killing of Soleimani, to Iran’s inability to persuade the political factions in the Iraqi parliament to...
Iran and Syria recently signed an agreement to expand military and technological collaboration. President Bashar al-Assad met with Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, who came to Damascus for the signing ceremony, extended his support for the agreement, and declared that it reflects the high level of strategic and multi-dimensional ties between the countries. The agreement was formulated after many years of coordination and cooperation between Syria and Iran in the war against the rebels and the opposition in...
The explosion on July 2, 2020 at the site for assembling advanced centrifuges in the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz dealt a blow to Iran’s plans to progress to more advanced stages in its nuclear project – although it will not prevent Iran’s continued accumulation of enriched uranium, which in principle shortens the Iranian timetable for obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Iranian dilemma is whether to exercise restraint or to respond, and if it chooses to respond, how. Thus far, Israel has not been accused directly....
On the twentieth anniversary of his rise to power, Bashar al-Assad faces governance and sovereignty challenges posed by the still-unfinished civil war, including the destruction and devastation of infrastructure, the foreign presence in Syria, and the lack of control in the Idlib region – the last significant rebel enclave in the northwest of the country – as well as in the east. At the same time, an economic crisis is worsening, new American sanctions have been imposed, public protests are held, and there are rifts among Assad’s...
Although the presidential elections in Iran are expected only a year from now, the election campaign, which contains the potential for significant changes in Iran’s internal and foreign policies, is already attracting much attention both in Iran and in the West. Both main political camps in Iran, the pragmatist-reformists and the conservative-hardliners, have begun preparing for the presidential elections. President Hassan Rouhani will be finishing his term during one of the most challenging periods since the Islamic Revolution,...
In cyber warfare, an attack on essential civilian infrastructure is considered a serious attack. According to media reports, Iran attacked Israel’s water infrastructure, and Israel responded with a cyberattack against infrastructure at the Iranian port in Bandar Abbas. While these were not the first attacks between the two countries, they illustrate that the conflict theater includes essential civilian infrastructure. Israel has so far managed to deal with cyberattacks against civilian infrastructure without suffering much damage,...
The US administration, considers the appointment of Iraqi National Intelligence Service head Mustafa al-Kadhimi as Prime Minister of Iraq as an opportunity to reinforce the US hold in Iraq and counter Iran’s efforts to consolidate its influence there. The strategic dialogue expected to take place soon between the United States and Iraq is a critical juncture in their relations, in part because the outcome is likely to affect the future of the American military presence in Iraq. Israel has a clear interest in the success of this...
