Senior members of the incoming US administration have stressed that they intend to advance a return by the United States to the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as a lifting of sanctions, if Iran returns to its obligations under the agreement. Iran, for its part, clarifies that there is no room for negotiation on an improved agreement, and it has already raised the level of uranium enrichment at Fordow to 20 percent, as a means of putting pressure on Biden. It appears that Israel has for the time being chosen to publicly challenge the...
Once President-elect Biden enters the White House, Israel will have to work with a president whose policy on Iran is expected to differ from that of the Trump administration. Both the incoming and outgoing administrations have made an identical fundamental commitment: to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Beyond this, however, they disagree about how to achieve the goal, and how to deal with the Iranian missile program and other negative elements of Iranian conduct in the region, which were not addressed in the JCPOA. For...
Southern Syria is an Iranian “backyard” and a platform for attacks on Israel; for example, it could well serve as an option for revenge following the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of the Iranian nuclear project. Iran is determined to continue the consolidation of its proxies in the area and enhance its local civilian and military influence. The current chaos in southern Syria stems from the Assad regime’s lack of effective control and the competing interests of the many actors that are active there:...
Following the recent elections in the United States, President-elect Joe Biden declared the incoming administration’s intention to return to the nuclear deal and lift the sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration if Tehran returns to full compliance with its commitments as part of the agreement. However, senior administration officials appear willing to discuss the matter in consultation with US allies in the Middle East, and in particular with Israel. In the dialogue that is expected to take place with the...
The prolonged tension in the north between the IDF and Hezbollah suggests that the two sides are actually only a few faulty or miscalculated moves away from a clash that is liable to escalate rapidly into a full-scale war, with little warning that would give the IDF time to prepare. At the same time, Israel is grappling with a Covid-19 crisis and a prolonged political crisis that has delayed essential IDF force buildup processes, particularly the budget and procurement of aircraft and battle systems, as well as the IDF’s...
The prevailing assumption in the Israeli and international media, and among governments around the world, is that the assassination of the head of Iran’s military nuclear project, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was carried out by Israel. If so, the costs and benefits of the assassination from Israel’s vantage point should be examined and weighed. To this end, certain questions must be answered: What was the strategic purpose of this action, and what is the likelihood of its ultimate success? In light of this goal, was the timing of the action...
The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizada invites six questions: Who is responsible for the act? What was the objective? Why now? What are the consequences of the assassination? How will Iran respond? What is the recommended policy for Israel in light of this development? This article contends that barring narrow political considerations, whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh’s assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives: damage Iran’s nuclear program; obstruct the Biden administration’s return to the...
Iran appears satisfied with the results of the United States presidential elections, although more so by the defeat of Donald Trump than by the victory of Joe Biden. However, Tehran is aware that the tensions between the United States and its European partners, inter alia over the issue of the nuclear agreement – tensions that played in Iran’s favor – may dissipate. Against this background, with the heated debate within the Iranian political system regarding a return to negotiations with the US on the JCPOA, a number of key messages...
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected President of the United States. While millions of votes were still being counted, President Trump declared victory and stated that he would appeal to the Supreme Court to stop the counting process. From the outset, Biden will have to immediately devote himself to domestic issues, after four years in which racial tensions reached their worst point in decades and the spread of the coronavirus wreaked enormous damage on public health and the economy. Israel’s analysis of the incoming...
The embargo imposed by the UN Security Council on the sale of weapons to Iran will expire on October 18, 2020. At that time, Iran will be permitted to purchase the weapon systems that it sought unsuccessfully to obtain in the past. Iran will likely prefer to buy weapons mainly from Russia, which since the 1990s has been its principal arms supplier, and its shopping list will probably include the Sukhoi S-30 aircraft and the S-400 advanced air defense systems. However, over the last two decades, even before the embargo was imposed,...
The announcement by the United States that notwithstanding the opposition by the international community it was renewing the UN Security Council sanctions canceled following the nuclear agreement has brought the administration’s policy of maximum pressure on Iran to a new height. Barring a development that alters the dynamic between the United States and Iran – an “October surprise” – the parties are now awaiting the outcome of the US presidential elections. Meanwhile, Iran continues to push ahead with its nuclear...
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is trying to block further internal and economic deterioration in his country, while maneuvering between Iran and the United States, which have turned Iraq into a theater of struggle between them. Al-Kadhimi recently embarked on political journeys to Tehran and Washington for talks on the US efforts to allow Iraq to attain energy independence. The series of economic agreements that al-Kadhimi signed during these visits, together with other steps he took, including in the regional sphere,...
