Are the recent US strikes against the Islamic State, as well Russia’s permissive policy on airstrikes in Syria that cause mass civilian casualties and extensive harm to civilian infrastructures, evidence of a change in international standards in the fight against terrorist organizations and sub-state actors? A related question is: do the rules of engagement that apply to powers such as the United States and Russia also apply to other states confronting terrorism, such as Israel? How should Israel prepare for its next confrontation...
The “Memorandum to Create De-escalation Zones in Syria,” signed in Astana, Kazakhstan on May 5, 2017 by Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantors of implementation, is the fourth attempt within just over a year to bring about a sustainable ceasefire in Syria. New this time is the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syrian territory. The agreement is thus an attempt to shape the future in Syria, including areas where Israel and Jordan have very clear interests, yet thus far without consideration of these interests. As...
The United States missile attack in Syria, which is likely to restore the US image of a world power with determination and deterrence, has aroused opposition among the very forces that supported Donald Trump in his presidential campaign – supporters of Britain’s exit from the European Union, politicians from the nationalist right wing in Europe, and Russia. The attack was welcomed, however, by most European countries – the natural allies of the United States. Therefore, the measure is likely to strengthen, albeit indirectly, the...
On the night of April 6-7, 2017, the United States launched dozens of cruise missiles from destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea and struck the Syrian air force base in Dardaghan-Shuayrat. Only 70 hours earlier, the Assad regime had launched bombers from this airfield to execute a chemical weapons attack against civilians. The significance of this focused and isolated attack by the United States lies not in its physical impact, which was deliberately limited in scope, but rather in its serving as a platform to carry the strategic...
After more than six blood-soaked years, some half a million dead (mostly civilians), and millions of displaced people and refugees, there are signs that the military stage in the Syrian civil war is approaching an end. Israel, which has largely been distanced from the Syrian quagmire, senses its lack of influence over arrangements currently underway in Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, Astana, and Geneva. Following Israel’s recent aerial attack deep in Syria on a storage site serving Hezbollah and/or forces subordinate to Iran Prime Minister...
There are growing indications that efforts to reduce the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are underway. The most recent one was the arrival of the Kuwaiti foreign minister in Tehran on January 25, 2017 for a meeting with the Iranian president. The foreign minister brought with him a letter expressing the willingness of the Arab Gulf states to begin a “strategic dialogue” with Iran. Although complete details of the initiative were not disclosed, it included an invitation to begin negotiations based on good neighborly relations,...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
This article discusses the crisis in Syria, analyzes the complex array of factors behind the war in Syria and its future course. The writer concludes that a political solution to the crisis is a distant dream, probably because, inter alia, the war has become a theater of confrontation between the United States and Western and Arab countries on one side and the coalition supporting Bashar al-Assad’s rule, headed by Iran and Russia, on the other. In this situation, it is critical for Israel to try to maintain its freedom of action in...
The article addresses the question of the future of Syria and Iraq after the Islamic State is defeated. This question, which has become more trenchant following the stepped up military effort to conquer the Islamic State’s strongholds in the second half of 2016, is given a mixed answer: the concrete materialization of the Salafi jihadist idea, i.e., the organization’s territorial base, may be defeated, but its historical and religious sources will continue to inspire efforts to realize it anew, and will therefore continue to...
The battle for control of Aleppo, the second most important city in Syria, has seen a victory for Assad’s forces, supported by the pro-Assad coalition. In effect, the international community, including the United States, abandoned the Syrian people, and failed in both halting the bloodbath that to date has claimed nearly half a million victims and preventing a humanitarian disaster. Russian President Vladimir Putin made every effort to finish the campaign in Aleppo before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House, and to...
The United States’ stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration’s decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies. The new US administration will be under the scrutiny of the international community, and the first steps that it takes will have critical implications for the way in which the various actors in the...
Hezbollah currently has the advantage over its enemies in Lebanon. Its power and rule – direct and indirect – over events in the country are undisputed. At the present time, there is no political or military power able to challenge Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its power, however, can also be its weak point. Realization by the new United States administration that aid to Lebanon in effect constitutes aid to Hezbollah could lead to reconsideration of economic and military aid to Lebanon. This is likely to have a negative impact on the...
