The economies of the Middle East are divided into high-income economies – those of Israel and the Gulf states – and poor/developing economies, with some states – Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen – suffering deep economic and political crises. The wealthy economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with vaccinations for the majority of their populations and fiscal expansions, and global price increases are expected to lead to a moderate increase in inflation in these economies. The developing economies, however, have had difficulty...
The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...
The United Arab Emirates, Israel’s central partner in the Gulf, sees Iran as the main threat to its national security. The challenge that Iran poses to the UAE includes the threats, either direct or by means of proxies, of a kinetic attack on strategic targets, the potential use of subversion and terror, and control over Emirati territory. The UAE has reacted by developing a range of defensive responses, while simultaneously seeking to maintain open economic and diplomatic ties with Iran as much as possible. The UAE’s current efforts...
The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...
The past two years have witnessed cyberattacks attributed to Iran targeting companies and organizations in Israel that are ostensibly ransomware, but in fact are undertaken as influence operations. Notably, ransomware attacks have been very common in recent years, and have been defined by the White House as a central cyber threat. Still, the use of ransomware attacks for the purpose of influence operations rather than for an economic purpose is a singular phenomenon. This phenomenon is unique to the framework of the conflict between...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The talks on the possibility of returning to the nuclear deal (JCPOA) are supposed to be renewed on November 29. In the background of the publication of the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency detailing violations by Iran – both of the nuclear deal and of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At this stage, it is impossible to assess whether the Iranians have decided to return to the talks with the intent of reaching an agreement, or alternatively of proving that Washington is responsible for failing...
There has never been complete agreement between Washington and Jerusalem over a number of core issues affecting Israel’s security. United States administrations and Israeli governments have come and gone, and these issues remained in place and sometimes had a temporary impact on American political and military aid to Israel. Demographic and political changes in the United States, the return of the Democrats to the White House and to control over both houses of Congress, demographic and ideological changes in the Democratic Party...
Experts, political activists, and Iranian media have recently warned of increased Iranian emigration. While emigration is not new, the renewed discussion of the phenomenon and its ramifications provides further evidence of the growing sense of despair among the Iranian public, especially the younger generation. Factors contributing to this sentiment in recent years include the collapse of the nuclear deal, the renewal of the sanctions, the heightened economic crisis, and the disappointment at President Rouhani’s failure to...
The American withdrawal from Afghanistan presents Iran with a new and complex situation. On the one hand, the withdrawal is perceived as a positive development, because Iran no longer has United States forces on its eastern and western borders, and it is clear that Tehran hopes that the US will subsequently withdraw its forces from Iraq. On the other hand, Iran and Afghanistan share a 900 kilometer-long border, and a lack of governance in Afghanistan will have immediate implications for Iran’s economy and security. Iran is...
In recent years the threats facing Saudi Arabia have intensified, and they have seen significant changes. A noticeable increase in kinetic threats (scope and precision) and in cyber threats to strategic assets is evident, and in particular Riyadh faces a threat to the functional continuity of its oil facilities and freedom of navigation. These looming threats are ominous for the Saudi economy and damage the kingdom’s standing; should they intensify further, security could be undermined, and in extreme scenarios, national...
The proposed government of incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reflects a significant change in the political balance of power in the executive branch, and heralds a return to hardline control over all branches of government. The government’s composition indicates Raisi’s intention of taking a tougher line than the previous government in both internal affairs and foreign policy, although overall strategy in Iran is in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While like previous administrations Raisi’s proposed...
