Publications on Syria

Depicted at 2018 Munich Security Conference is a challenging view of the global security environment, marked by a dangerous combination of worsening trends regarding the world’s climate, economy, and society; weakening strategic architectures; challenging technologies; and volatile crisis areas, led by North Korea and Syria. The Palestinian issue was marginalized, given its low influence on Middle East problems in general. Indeed, the Middle East is a secondary focus of attention for the international community, currently occupied...

The war in Syria that began seven years ago is now on the brink of a new stage, as reflected in recent weeks by incidents on the various fronts. Inevitably, the complex fabric of interests among the many elements involved has resulted in conflicts and has renewed the sense of “all versus all.” During the events between Israel, Syria, and Iran on February 10, 2018, Russia worked to stop the escalation from becoming a violent round of fighting. The United States seemed at once present but absent; its voice was not heard...

Turkish-US tensions stemming from Operation Olive Branch in Afrin have brought the deteriorating bilateral relations of the past two years to a new low. Whereas the major aim of the US interests in Syria continues to be preventing the return of the Islamic State, Turkey will continue to take action to take advantage of the post-Islamic State reality in order to achieve its goals vis-à-vis the Kurds. The conduct of all the parties involved in northern Syria will likely continue to be characterized by a sensitive and volatile reality...

Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.

There are two possible explanations for the events on Israel’s northern border that began before dawn on February 10, 2018 with the downing of an Iranian drone that penetrated Israeli airspace. One is Iran’s desire to conduct a covert move to examine its intelligence capability, The second explanation is that Iran initiated a deliberate provocation in order to redefine the rules of the game in Syria against Israel. The Israeli response was extensive and included attacks on Syrian and Iranian targets, and Israel must prepare for...

Israel’s current strategic situation is one of the most favorable the country has known in its 70 years of existence. Nonetheless, its margins of security are narrow, and it cannot rest on its laurels or rely on the IDF’s military power. There must be political action to promote the future of the State of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, and moral state. Israel’s national security challenges are closely interrelated: to confront Iran’s ambitions to increase its regional influence, Israel must build partnerships with regional...

During the civil war in Syria, the functioning of the country’s state system was fundamentally undermined, and essential questions have been raised regarding the shaping of a future state order in its territory and the implications of the trends evolving in this arena for Israeli national security. This memorandum offers answers to these questions.

In the course of 2017, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a research study to examine the situation in the Gaza Strip, with a focus on the prevailing political, economic, infrastructural, and security conditions, including their cumulative manifestations and their short term and long term implications. The aim of the project was to provide a knowledge base for reevaluation of Israeli policy toward the region and for an international reconstruction project. Underlying this aim is the understanding that the...

Suicide attacks remain one of the most effective tools available to terrorist organizations to achieve their objectives. In 2017, 348 suicide attacks were carried out in 23 countries throughout the world by some 623 terrorists. This is the lowest number of suicide attacks since 2013. Approximately 4,310 people were killed and 6,700 people wounded in suicide attacks in 2017, and as in previous years, the Islamic State was the leading source of these attacks. Of those committing suicide attacks, 137 were women and girls – the highest...

During the final months of 2017, more than 600 people were killed in two terrorist attacks in Egypt and Somalia by two organizations that are allies of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The large number of casualties caused by only two attacks indicates that notwithstanding announcements that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have been defeated, the campaign against terrorism by Salafi jihadist activists is far from over.

In 2017, the major actors in the international arena continued the cautious policy of recent years: a limited investment of resources in the Middle East, based on the desire to avoid falling into regional cauldrons that continue to simmer, though mostly on a low flame. Among the principal events that preoccupied the international actors were the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State, the stabilization of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Other important...