On the night of April 6-7, 2017, the United States launched dozens of cruise missiles from destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea and struck the Syrian air force base in Dardaghan-Shuayrat. Only 70 hours earlier, the Assad regime had launched bombers from this airfield to execute a chemical weapons attack against civilians. The significance of this focused and isolated attack by the United States lies not in its physical impact, which was deliberately limited in scope, but rather in its serving as a platform to carry the strategic...
The highlight of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s first official visit to Russia on March 27-28, 2017 was a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. At a joint press conference, Putin stressed that “Iran is a good and reliable neighbor, as well as a stable partner for Russia,” and announced that the intention is to bring the relations to the level of a “strategic partnership.” There is no doubt that Rouhani’s visit to Moscow is an important milestone in the developing relations between Iran and Russia....
After more than six blood-soaked years, some half a million dead (mostly civilians), and millions of displaced people and refugees, there are signs that the military stage in the Syrian civil war is approaching an end. Israel, which has largely been distanced from the Syrian quagmire, senses its lack of influence over arrangements currently underway in Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, Astana, and Geneva. Following Israel’s recent aerial attack deep in Syria on a storage site serving Hezbollah and/or forces subordinate to Iran Prime Minister...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
This article is looking at the situation in Syria through Russian lenses, it surveys Moscow’s intervention in Syria against the backdrop of the challenges facing it both at home and abroad. The author points out that despite campaign rhetoric about cooperating with Russia in the fight against the Islamic State; it is not clear whether President Trump will indeed pursue this policy. Accordingly, it is far from certain whether Moscow will be able to leverage achievements in the Syrian theater toward achievements in the post-Soviet...
The articles focus on the crisis between the superpowers that intensified over the past year due to the ongoing war in Syria. The issue is analyzed from the American perspective, notes that while the incoming United States President, Donald Trump, charts his Middle East policy, particularly regarding the fight against the Islamic State, he will have to devise a grand strategy for US foreign policy. As part of this policy framework, Trump will have to choose how much weight the Middle East should command within that strategy as...
The battle for control of Aleppo, the second most important city in Syria, has seen a victory for Assad’s forces, supported by the pro-Assad coalition. In effect, the international community, including the United States, abandoned the Syrian people, and failed in both halting the bloodbath that to date has claimed nearly half a million victims and preventing a humanitarian disaster. Russian President Vladimir Putin made every effort to finish the campaign in Aleppo before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House, and to...
The United States’ stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration’s decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies. The new US administration will be under the scrutiny of the international community, and the first steps that it takes will have critical implications for the way in which the various actors in the...
On October 3, 2016, the US State Department announced the suspension of bilateral talks with Moscow seeking a ceasefire in Syria, and cancellation of a Joint Implementation Center for action against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Statements by the American administration contain explanations for the failure of US political efforts, and point at the blatant gaps between the current US approach and Russia’s strategic culture and approach to the use of force. The cumulative result is that at all times Russia and the Assad regime have a...
The widespread popular belief, as well as the operating assumption of US law enforcement agencies, was that it was Russian hackers who broke into the computer network serving the Democratic National Convention, as part of a cyberattack aimed at Democratic Party institutions. Apparently as a result of tensions between Russia and the US, a cyberwar is already underway that goes beyond the ongoing activities of intelligence gathering and espionage. Causing damage to the democratic process, perhaps by means of tendentious exposure of...
Although the Syrian regime welcomed the Russian-American ceasefire agreement, President Assad was quick to proclaim his determination to reestablish Syrian state control over all parts of the country that are currently in the hands of “terrorists.” He also demonstrated no willingness to move ahead with regime reform. Yet alongside the clear difficulties threatening the success of the ceasefire agreement, there are significant factors that may enable it. The major issue that should trouble Israel in light of the ceasefire agreement is...
The agreement between Russia and the United States on a ceasefire in Syria is a compromise between rival powers. The respective political objectives of the two sides led the parties to the negotiating table, but likewise made it difficult for them to conclude an agreement. The divergent goals may also make it difficult to implement the agreement. Moreover, although the agreement serves the interests of the United States and Russia, it still lacks a guarantee that the fighting will stop, and it does not have a formula for the full...
