The multiyear Tnufa (“momentum”) plan drawn up by IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi is meant to provide a response to changes affecting the IDF – those underway and those that are expected in the next five years – and to improve operational effectiveness. However, recently the situation assessment has been flooded with factors related to economic and political conditions that may delay and limit the plan’s launch. There can be no doubt regarding the multiyear plan’s importance to the IDF, both for force...
Despite contentions that events of the past year have reduced the level of societal resilience in the Gaza envelope communities, a high and even improved level of systemic functioning prevails regarding the civilian capacity to stand up to immediate security challenges. In addition, the local population continues to increase, and construction is on the rise. The critical question is whether the continued “rounds of escalation” over time will negatively affect the high functional resilience in the area. It is possible that...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
The civilian front can expect to be challenged significantly in any future conflict with Hamas, and even more so, Hezbollah. The recent events deep within Israeli territory highlight the broad inherent risk of a systemic disruption due to rocket attacks on the civilian domain during a broad and protracted conflict, with a danger of multiple, simultaneous events that stretch the capacity of response systems. Israel was wise to come up with its overall concept for a national response to this complex challenge, interweaving military and...
In 2018, a record 4.1 million tourists visited Israel from all over the world. The figure is particularly impressive, given the security incidents in this period, the extensive coverage of security-related events by the foreign press and social media, and the BDS campaign. While global tourism between 2007 and 2018 increased 60 percent, tourism in Israel in the same period rose 100 percent. This figure reflects Israel’s strong international standing and indicates that for now, tourists regard the Israeli security situation as...
The goal of the research is to examine the phenomenon of societal resilience in the Israeli settlements in the western Negev, near the border with Gaza. All these settlements are exposed to similar security challenges; the period under review saw three rounds of intense fighting between 2008 and 2014 and a “routine of terror incidents” in the intervals between them. Ten years is a long enough time to develop the perspective required to gauge public efficacy and the organizational capacity of the communities during and following...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
Various measures taken under the current government are perceived by part of the public as threatening the robustness of Israeli democracy. These include the Basic Law: Israel – the Nation State of the Jewish People; the Judea and Samaria Settlement Regularization Law; the so-called “Loyalty in Culture” bill; the bill on the override clause; and attacks on the Supreme Court and human rights organizations. On the other hand, some argue that Israeli democracy is stronger than ever, and that those mourning the state of Israeli democracy...
The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
Scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian Arena: Strategic Challenges and Possible Responses presents the results of research conducted at the Institute for National Security Studies, which examined the security and strategic threats and challenges Israel faces in several possible scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The research focused on the strategic challenges to Israel in each of these scenarios and Israel’s possible responses to them. Most scenarios clearly demonstrate that the existence of a responsible, stable,...
