Faced with a multi-level dilemma regarding the Gaza Strip, Hamas might choose to respond to Egypt’s efforts to broker a settlement and move toward an acceptance of Israeli terms, in order to bring about a swift improvement in the humanitarian situation and present this to the Gaza population as a substantive achievement. In the cost-benefit analysis that compares this with a toppling of the Hamas government or a reoccupation of Gaza, Israel should accept the existence of a hostile state entity controlled by Hamas on its southern...
The two Fajr/M-75 rockets fired at Tel Aviv on the evening of March 14, 2019 caught the Israeli security establishment – as well as the political echelon – by complete surprise. Whether the rocket fire was a mistake, as declared by Hamas and the IDF, or intentional, both the rockets and the Israeli response are further evidence that Hamas continues its policy of defiance while controlling escalation and dictating the rules of the game with Israel. This means that Israel’s policy of deterrence with regard to Hamas and the other...
The current campaign along the Gaza border, which began nearly one year ago, differs fundamentally from other struggles Israel has faced in this arena over the last decades, and consequently can be considered a “new campaign.” The struggle waged since March 2018 initially started with independent popular initiatives that were appropriated early on by Hamas, fine-tuned, and adapted to the organization’s needs and objectives, but a year into the campaign, Hamas cannot claim a stellar performance. The Gaza Strip is the most...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
Scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian Arena: Strategic Challenges and Possible Responses presents the results of research conducted at the Institute for National Security Studies, which examined the security and strategic threats and challenges Israel faces in several possible scenarios in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The research focused on the strategic challenges to Israel in each of these scenarios and Israel’s possible responses to them. Most scenarios clearly demonstrate that the existence of a responsible, stable,...
The eighth issue of Over the Net deals at length with the affair that has taken the Arab world and the international arena by storm since October 2018, the murder and disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The man himself, the reasons behind his murder, and the details of the murder have combined to create a fascinating story that caused passionate discussions, first and foremost about Saudi Arabia and its (acting) leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and also about Turkey, the United States, and freedom of the press...
In the latest confrontation between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s policy was to offer sparse explanations to the public regarding the limited response to the Hamas attacks; this in turn allowed Hamas’s own interpretation of the events to dominate. As the Israeli public was not informed of the considerations behind the government’s restrained response, the sense of internal resilience was undermined. While Hamas won points in the cognitive battle, the Israeli public was embarrassed and disappointed; the political...
Even if Israel succeeds in arresting further terrorism in the West Bank, recent events underscore that it must adopt a new paradigm that provides a relevant response to greater strategic interests, and not just to immediate concerns each time escalation occurs. Conflict management in the name of an illusory status quo is leading Israel toward a one-state reality, even if there is no official Israeli declaration of support for a one-state solution. To avoid sliding into this reality, a “strategic road map” is proposed, based on four...
In the most recent escalation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the message conveyed by both parties was that they are not interested in paying the price of a war that will ultimately return them to square one. At the same time, neither wants to allow the other to score success or to appear as if it is conducting negotiations with the enemy. Thus, in the Palestinian arena, Israel should give priority to its long term interests at the expense of its short term interests that focus on achieving calm in the area. It is...
The challenges facing the PA and PA President Abu Mazen have increased during the Trump administration. In addition, Egypt in effect has made it clear that it is willing to work toward a ceasefire arrangement in the Gaza Strip, even without agreement by Abu Mazen and the PA. Egypt is thus in essence granting Hamas a status that it did not previously enjoy, equal to that of the PA. Hamas speaks on behalf of the Gaza Strip population and their plight. Abu Mazen, however, still enjoys the status of exclusive representative of the...
