Egypt and Iran have recently been discussing the possibility of normalizing diplomatic relations between them for the first time since 1979. This historic move may serve various interests of both countries, yet there are still some reservations, especially on the part of Cairo. Egypt is currently reviewing the nature of the change in Iran’s conduct following its normalization with Saudi Arabia in April 2023, and has been attentive to the views of the Gulf states and the Unites States regarding possible moves moves. Normalization...
Recent weeks have seen the resumption of near-daily protests throughout Iran by pensioners protesting the ongoing erosion of their pensions and their growing economic distress. At the same time, senior Iranian figures have warned of the severe crisis affecting pension funds. The distress of the pensioners has become one of the main social and economic issues on the Iranian agenda in recent years. The main causes of the pension fund crisis are the aging population, the low legal retirement age, the decision by many workers to take...
The operational use of maneuvering hypersonic missiles by Russia in the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the threat inherent in such weapons. Maneuvering hypersonic missiles travel on an aerodynamic trajectory at a speed that is 5-10 times the speed of sound (Mach 5-10), and have excellent navigation and maneuvering capabilities that make it difficult to detect and track their trajectory, and consequently to intercept them. Such missiles can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, and have the ability to strike moving targets...
Russian dependence on Iran has deepened over the past few months, reflected in a variety of developments in security, foreign policy, and economic realms, in which Moscow increased its support for Iranian interests. Tightened relations, and especially Iranian assistance to Russia in the framework of Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, indicate that the cooperation between the two countries is not just tactical; rather, it reflects a strategic decision by both sides. This development not only directly impacts Iranian force buildup and...
In late April and early May, there were five attacks on clerics in Iran, following other attacks on clerics in the past year. In addition, the past few months have seen a growing phenomenon of young people approaching clerics walking along the street and throwing off their turbans. Although there is no sign of a direct connection between all the incidents, at least some are presumably expressions of increased public hostility toward clerics. The hardline clerics’ insistence on continuing to enforce the Islamic dress code...
The recent visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Syria marked a significant achievement for Iran, as it was seen partly as a response to the normalization process between Israel and several Arab countries. The visit was presented by both countries as a demonstration of unity amidst a changing regional reality and a victory for the so-called axis of resistance. It took place against the backdrop of the improving relations between Iran and Syria and several Arab states, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil, and...
Iran is currently focusing on two conflicting regional processes. On the one hand, it is gradually improving its relations with Arab countries, with special emphasis on the Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, there is a sharpening conflict between the so-called axis of resistance, backed by Iran, and Israel. While it is clear that the initiative for the most recent round of escalation on Israel’s northern and southern borders was not directly linked to Iran, but rather to developments on the Palestinian front,...
The escalation in multiple arenas over the course of Passover demonstrated the convergence of the Palestinian resistance axis, which relies on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with the Iran-Hezbollah axis. The timing of the escalation is also directly connected to the internal crisis in Israel, and reflects increased temerity by Israel’s enemies and their attempt to test whether its resilience has narrowed to the extent that they have an opportunity to change the deterrence equation. In light of the confluence of these elements,...
Iran-China relations have seen several twists and turns over the past few months, from unusual Chinese statements against Iran during President Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and diplomatic tension between the countries, followed by a precedent-setting visit by Iranian President Raisi to China and the signing of continuing economic agreements, to Chinese mediation in formulating the agreement to renew Iranian-Saudi relations. China-Iran relations are stable and based on strong foundations of common opposition to US hegemony in general...
The State of Israel is now engulfed in an unprecedented and perilous set of circumstances. While Iran is on the nuclear threshold and the Palestinian arena is on the brink of wide escalation, Israel itself is racing toward the brink of passing fateful legislation that would reshape its governing system. Israel’s enemies watch with satisfaction, drawing confidence and daring toward new levels of brinksmanship, which could easily lead to escalation and possibly war. For Israel to cross the legislative threshold from the current reality...
In a surprising announcement, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a resumption of relations (which were severed in 2016) and a return of ambassadors, which will take place in two months at the latest. The announcement was surprising both in its timing and in the identity of the mediator – China. The move reflects Beijing’s increased involvement in the Gulf and strengthens its position vis-à-vis the United States in the region. While the US administration welcomes the decline in tensions in the Gulf and seeks to continue efforts to...
The war between Russia and Ukraine has seen extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including many unmanned aircraft produced by Iran. As the war enters its second year, it offers Israel a good opportunity to study enemy technologies and prepare accordingly, not via forecasts or wargames but through actual – and alarming – occurrences. The use of UAVs by non-Western parties as an alternative to an air force, along with the lethal attacks on civilians in Ukraine and the extensive collateral damage caused by UAVs, is highly...
