At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
The Power Gap
As it enters a new decade, the State of Israel possesses impressive military, political, technological, and economic power. However, Israel is hard-pressed to translate these advantages into strategic influence and achieve its key national security objectives: mitigating threats, advancing peace, building alliances, and dictating the terms for the satisfactory conclusion of conflicts. This reality results from the limited benefit that military action can provide Israel against its main adversaries, as well as Israel’s...
The participation of East Jerusalem residents in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections has become a matter of contention between Hamas and Fatah. While the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority has conditioned this participation on Israeli consent, Hamas has insisted that there is no such requirement and that the two sides should wage a joint struggle to force Israel to let this population participate. Neither party is enthused by the idea of elections and both would prefer that they be deferred, but each has painted...
The escalation between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) on November 12-14, 2019, following the killing of the organization’s senior military commander Baha Abu al-Ata, exposed cracks in the relations between the two main organizations in the Palestinian resistance movement – PIJ and Hamas – as well as the fragility of the situation in the Gaza Strip. Over two days, Hamas left PIJ to deal on its own with the Israeli airstrikes in the Strip that seriously harmed PIJ operatives, while expressing little solidarity with it – or...
The targeted killing of the commander of Islamic Jihad’s northern brigade in the Gaza Strip and the ensuing days of battle against rocket and missile launches demonstrated Israel’s intelligence-operational capabilities and the efficiency of the home front defense systems. At the same time, the conclusion of the campaign saw no reduction in the threat posed by the organizations in the Strip and their ability to pursue the force buildup process and present a security threat to Israel at any time they might choose to realize...
The idea that has arisen recently of holding elections in the Palestinian Authority appears more serious at this stage than in the past. The main promoter of the idea is Abu Mazen, who advocates separate elections: first for the parliament, and only later for the presidency. Although Hamas has long demanded that the two elections be held simultaneously, a change in Hamas’s stance is evident, following its declaration that it is willing to proceed with the elections, while hinting that it might consent to Abu Mazen’s plan....
The barrage of rockets launched at Sderot and the Gaza periphery by the Islamic Jihad in northern Gaza on the night of November 1, 2019 underscored the Israeli dilemma regarding the Gaza Strip. This attack was yet another indication of the rise of the Islamic Jihad, which impacts on Hamas’s status, security stability in Gaza, and prospects for Israel reaching an accommodation with Hamas. For Hamas, Islamic Jihad’s growing strength is a provocation, and highlights that Hamas is a “resistance movement” devoid of...
Despite contentions that events of the past year have reduced the level of societal resilience in the Gaza envelope communities, a high and even improved level of systemic functioning prevails regarding the civilian capacity to stand up to immediate security challenges. In addition, the local population continues to increase, and construction is on the rise. The critical question is whether the continued “rounds of escalation” over time will negatively affect the high functional resilience in the area. It is possible that...
Over the past year, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has intensified its independent military action from the Gaza Strip against Israel. Clearly the organization has adopted a bolder and more independent approach toward Israel, and unlike in the past, its activities are not fully coordinated with Hamas and at times are even undertaken contrary to Hamas’s position. This conduct by PIJ raises a dual question: will the organization’s independent activities and its attempts to define new rules of the game force Israel to respond in a way...
One may distinguish between two manifestations of political and military strategy: surgical strategy versus therapeutic strategy. In the struggle against Hezbollah, Israel’s prime interest is to drive a wedge between Hezbollah’s Lebanese identity and the fact that it is a Shiite tool driven by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The more Hezbollah integrates into Lebanese politics, the more it becomes a partner with those responsible for Lebanon, casting its own destiny with that of the nation. By contrast, the more Hezbollah leader Hassan...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
