Publications

The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...

The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency represents a particularly concerning scenario for Tehran. Despite initial attempts by Iranian official to downplay this development, it is clear that Iran is highly apprehensive about the election results, especially given reports that it had attempted to assassinate Trump and  his hawkish stance toward Iran during his first term. Furthermore, Trump’s return to office finds Iran at a critical crossroads. In the short term, it must decide on the timing and nature of its response to...

In the ongoing conflict between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and following a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, Tehran announced an increase in the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Fordow and Natanz sites, effectively declaring its intention to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium. With the current quantities, Iran could, within a month of making a decision, begin enriching to military levels and produce enough enriched material for eight nuclear devices....

In recent months, as Iran has approached the nuclear threshold and shortened the times for producing nuclear weapons, and as the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency over the nuclear facilities has significantly declined, Iran could likely decide to change its policy and achieve nuclear weapons capability. Although a decision on this matter poses risks to Iran—military conflict with Israel and possibly even the United States—Iranian leader Ali Khamenei could retreat from his current position that maintaining the...

The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...

The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has assumed a new regional nature, with attacks by Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. While Yemen is a secondary combat zone, the potential damage it could cause to Israel and the Gulf states, which have been accused by the Houthis of collaborating with Israel, could increase. If the Houthis continue to be involved in the fighting, Israel will be forced to find ways to deter them and respond to their aggression, which will make it hard for the Gulf states to maintain...

The increase in attacks by pro-Iranian militias against the US presence in Iraq and Syria, and the corresponding increase in the number of US forces in the region – coupled with the clear warnings from senior US officials that they hold Iran responsible for the tension – are signs of possible escalation. Although neither the United States nor Iran wants a direct confrontation, these developments, in addition to the potential deterioration of the situation between Israel and Hezbollah, have heightened the possibility of such a...

The tensions between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency reached new heights with Tehran’s recent decision to revoke the entry visas of eight inspectors, including those with profound knowledge of uranium enrichment technology and deep familiarity with Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s decision was preceded by an announcement by France, the United Kingdom, and Germany (the E3) that they would not cancel sanctions, due to expire in October, barring Iran from exporting or importing ballistic missiles and drones. In addition,...

Recent months have seen Iran engaged in a diplomatic campaign designed to breach its international isolation and the sanctions regime. In this framework, Iran seeks membership in international organizations that challenge Western dominance. It has already been accepted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and has been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as a member of BRICS. In addition, Iran’s President and a number of ministers visited Asia, Africa, and Latin America in an effort to tighten political,...

Two parallel and contradictory processes are currently underway between the United States and Iran. With the mediation of Qatar and Oman, the two countries reached a prisoner exchange agreement in return for the release of approximately $10 billion in frozen assets, which would be deposited in a Qatari bank and serve Iranian humanitarian needs. At the same time, the United States has reinforced its forces in and around the Strait of Hormuz with warships and thousands of marines, as well as fighter jets, some of which are carrying...