Tensions between Iran and the United States, which escalated following an American military buildup several days after the outbreak of protests across Iran, are currently in a temporary lull. This pause comes amid plans to hold a meeting between the two countries on February 6 in Oman (after a last-minute crisis that put the talks at risk was likely resolved). President Trump is aware of the risk to the credibility of US deterrence should no meaningful achievement vis-à-vis Iran be attained, given the expectations created by the...
Three weeks after the outbreak of a wave of unrest across Iran—which has claimed thousands of lives and led to the arrest of thousands more—the US administration faces a series of operational decisions in light of threats issued by President Trump toward the regime in Tehran. The president’s threats began with a public statement that the United States would come “to rescue” the protesters if the regime continued to employ lethal violence against them. This escalated with an additional tweet on January 13 in which he wrote that “help...
Iran is embroiled in an ongoing crisis with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as Iran does not allow it to inspect the sites struck during the 12-day war with Israel. It is also locked in a standoff with the United States, as Tehran refuses to renew negotiations—despite mediation efforts mainly by actors from the Gulf states—so long as the demand for zero enrichment remains in place. Inside Iran, too, a debate over negotiations is underway; for now, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has determined that the Trump administration...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
Two central pillars of Iran’s security perception have been undermined since its war with Israel: First, its nuclear program has suffered a severe blow, and second, the “resistance camp” of its regional proxies has been weakened to the point that, for now, it cannot stand by Iran’s side. Tehran must now formulate its nuclear policy under intense time pressure—caught between President Trump’s ultimatum and the threat from the European countries (the E3) to renew the UN Security Council sanctions by activating the “snapback” clause....
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published two alarming reports regarding Iran’s nuclear program. One report addresses Iran’s past activities at sites not declared to the IAEA, for which Tehran has failed to provide satisfactory explanations. The second report concerns the current status of the program and indicates an acceleration in the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, enabling Iran to enrich to military grade for 10 nuclear bombs within days. Both reports are expected to be discussed at the upcoming IAEA Board...
The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...
The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency represents a particularly concerning scenario for Tehran. Despite initial attempts by Iranian official to downplay this development, it is clear that Iran is highly apprehensive about the election results, especially given reports that it had attempted to assassinate Trump and his hawkish stance toward Iran during his first term. Furthermore, Trump’s return to office finds Iran at a critical crossroads. In the short term, it must decide on the timing and nature of its response to...
In the ongoing conflict between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and following a resolution condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, Tehran announced an increase in the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Fordow and Natanz sites, effectively declaring its intention to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium. With the current quantities, Iran could, within a month of making a decision, begin enriching to military levels and produce enough enriched material for eight nuclear devices....
In recent months, as Iran has approached the nuclear threshold and shortened the times for producing nuclear weapons, and as the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency over the nuclear facilities has significantly declined, Iran could likely decide to change its policy and achieve nuclear weapons capability. Although a decision on this matter poses risks to Iran—military conflict with Israel and possibly even the United States—Iranian leader Ali Khamenei could retreat from his current position that maintaining the...
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...
The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has assumed a new regional nature, with attacks by Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. While Yemen is a secondary combat zone, the potential damage it could cause to Israel and the Gulf states, which have been accused by the Houthis of collaborating with Israel, could increase. If the Houthis continue to be involved in the fighting, Israel will be forced to find ways to deter them and respond to their aggression, which will make it hard for the Gulf states to maintain...
