Iran: Internal Affairs

Even if the regime manages to overcome the current crisis temporarily, roughly half a century after the revolution, the Second Iranian Republic appears to be approaching its historical end. What might the Third Republic look like?

Young Iranians celebrate Halloween, while the regime erects a statue of an ancient Persian king: What explains these trends, which do not align with Iran’s Islamic identity, and how do they affect the future of the Islamic Republic?

Since the end of 2024 there has been growing criticism from ultra-conservative and revolutionary factions in the Islamic Republic on issues of domestic and foreign policy. Most of the criticism has focused on Iran’s lack of response to the Israeli attack on October 26, 2024, Iranian failures in Syria in view of the collapse of the Assad regime, and the decision to postpone implementation of the hijab law, which is intended to increase the severity of penalties for breaches of the Islamic dress code. Although disagreements between the main political streams in Iran are a regular feature of the system, the protest by radical groups is a subject of intense public and political interest, mainly because it centers around decisions that are not the sole responsibility of the government and that were taken by political institutions directly subordinate to the supreme leader, particularly the Supreme National Security Council. Therefore, sections of the conservative camp have expressed concern that the challenges to government policy posed by the radicals could not only further undermine social cohesion but also damage the unity of the governing elite. Even if the radical elements’ growing criticism of regime policy does not constitute an immediate and significant threat to the unity of the Iranian political and security elite, it could undermine the basis of the regime’s ideological support and harm its long-term ability to deal with more important threats to its stability.