So Far So Good? The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Is Largely Holding
Assaf Orion
Special Publication, January 29, 2025
The agreement’s implementation phase is going surprisingly well and has been extended, but maintaining the ceasefire will require officials to resolve the issues in dispute and address Hezbollah’s threats.
The conduct of China and Taiwan since the October 7 massacre in the context of the Swords of Iron war reflects differences in their interests, objectives, and strategic positions with respect to Israel, the Middle East, and the international arena. While China is opposed to Israel and sympathetic to Hamas, Taiwan shows sympathy and support for Israel. In spite of the emerging clarity, Israel should not at this stage change its fundamental policy on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
While attacks by the Houthis on Israel and civilian shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait continue to mark the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, China has been virtually silent, with no significant condemnation, and certainly no concrete action. China has also refrained from joining the US-initiated task force to protect navigation in the region, and its warships have failed to respond to distress calls from attacked ships. Beijing’s global pretensions collide with a low glass ceiling whenever they require any substantive...
On the Brink of Nuclearization, the Brink of War, the Brink of the Abyss
Assaf Orion
INSS Insight No. 1696, March 15, 2023
The State of Israel is now engulfed in an unprecedented and perilous set of circumstances. While Iran is on the nuclear threshold and the Palestinian arena is on the brink of wide escalation, Israel itself is racing toward the brink of passing fateful legislation that would reshape its governing system. Israel’s enemies watch with satisfaction, drawing confidence and daring toward new levels of brinksmanship, which could easily lead to escalation and possibly war. For Israel to cross the legislative threshold from the current reality...
The International System: The Global Competition and its Growing Influence on Israel
Shahar Eilam, Assaf Orion, Eldad Shavit, Arkady Mil-Man, Tomer Fadlon
, Strategic Analysis for Israel 2023
Current Situation – Great power competition · Struggle over world order · Technology core issue · Potential escalation (Ukraine, Taiwan) · Less collaboration · Middle East lower priority | Current Israeli Strategy – “Between the raindrops” maneuver · Rely on the US while advancing relations with other powers | Recommended Strategy – Alternative 2: Strengthen the US strategic mainstay · Stand by the US as a member of the Western camp · Pursue differential foreign policy, adjusted to era of great power competition
Whither the China Policy of the Sixth Netanyahu Government?
Assaf Orion
Special Publication, January 5, 2023
As the 37th Israeli government begins its term of office, it faces a host of national security challenges, from the Temple Mount, to the Palestinian theater, the security challenges in the north, and the complex threat from Iran, most of which have a significant international dimension. Against the background of the strategic competition between the great powers, the war in Ukraine, and the struggle for technological-economic dominance, the new government must navigate prudently between the United States, Israel’s great strategic...
China below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology
Assaf Orion,
INSS Insight No. 1624, July 26, 2022
During President Biden’s recent visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia, there was ostensibly almost no discussion about the US strategic rivalry with China. In fact, however, during his visit, the President advanced practical steps to mobilize America’s regional partners to its efforts, primarily in the tech sphere. A joint statement about establishment of a dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington on advanced technology reflects common understandings about the challenges of technological competition, and signals a new stage in the...
Non-Twinned Cities: The Local Government’s Foreign Policy
Assaf Orion
Special Publication, May 17, 2022
Twin and sister city relations are usually managed by municipalities aiming to advance municipal and business needs, but in China they are also used to promote the objectives of the Communist Party and the central government, and in fact are directed by them. Due to the different structures and modus operandi of government in Israel and China, and in view of the differences in power and the gaps in knowledge between elements on each side, city relationships sometimes spill over into foreign and security policy, which in Israel are...
The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...
September 1, 2021 marked the official launch of operations at the Haifa Bayport Terminal. In recent years, Israeli media publications have raised concerns about the port’s operation by a Chinese state-owned company, particularly in view of the growing rivalry between China and the United States. These concerns have likewise resonated in the United States. The launch of the new port invites a re-examination of the issue.
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